Thriller with Nord Stream: The 2 big explosions like earthquakes – All the scenarios on how they punctured the pipelines

Denmark believes “deliberate actions” caused major leaks in Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 that run under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, and seismologists said strong explosions preceded the leaks.

European leaders and experts have spoken of possible sabotage amid an energy standoff with Russia sparked by the war in Ukraine. Although filled with natural gas, neither pipeline—neither Nord Stream 1 nor Nord Stream 2—currently supplies Europe.

“The authorities’ assessment is clear that these are deliberate actions, not accidents,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Tuesday.

He added, however, that “there is no information to indicate who might be behind this.” Frederiksen rejected the claim that the incident was an attack on Denmark, saying the leaks occurred in international waters.

The incident overshadowed the opening of a long-awaited pipeline that will carry Norwegian natural gas to Poland to boost the continent’s energy independence from Moscow.

When did the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 explosions occur?

THE first explosion was recorded early Monday morning southeast of the Danish island of Bornholm, said Bjorn Lund, director of the Swedish National Seismic Network. A second, stronger explosion northeast of the island the same night was equivalent to a magnitude 2.3 earthquake. Seismic stations in Denmark, Norway and Finland also recorded the explosions.

“There’s no doubt about it, it’s not an earthquake,” Lund said.

Today, Danish Defense Minister Morten Bødskov will travel to Brussels to discuss the leaks at the two gas pipelines with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg.

What caused the explosion, all scenarios

The scenarios give and take as to what exactly caused the explosions in the pipelines they feature 4.1 cm thick steel walls. and are covered by 11 cm thick reinforced concrete.

According to Danish military analyst Puck Nielsen, sabotage “is not technically difficult. It just requires a boat and some divers who know how to handle explosive devices.

If we look at who would benefit in practice from turmoil and additional chaos in the gas market in Europe, I believe that basically only one player benefits from more uncertainty, and that is Russia“, he said.

According to the Guardian, British sources said they believe it may not be possible to determine exactly what happened, while another source said that the explosions are unlikely to have been caused by a submarine or other underwater vesselbecause their presence would have been detected in the relatively shallow waters of the Baltic, with parts of the pipelines lying between 80 and 110 meters deep.

An alternative scenario – completely hypothetical, as the same sources pointed out – is that can a vessel disguised as a merchant to shed days or weeks before the attack mines in the area, which were later detonated by remote control and caused her to explode.

The German government believes that these are targeted attacks against the two pipelines, as reported by the Tagesspiegel newspaper, citing security circles, but also based on other evidence. The magazine Der Spiegel even cites a person who has insider knowledge of the facts. In short, DW notes, the signs probably point to sabotage, an act of sabotage, or even an attack based on the time sequenceand the strong pressure loss in Nord Stream 1.

Based on first assessments of the situation, “the possibility of a possible attack at the bottom of the sea is not something common. It’s happening only with special forces, with divers or even a submarine» report well-informed sources.

Notably, on Monday the Norwegian Petroleum Safety Authority (PSA) urged oil companies to be vigilant for unidentified drones, seen flying near Norwegian offshore platforms oil and gas, warning of possible attacks, according to what was reported by the NTB news agency.

Foam in the sea, at the place where the explosion took place

Danish Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod said Sweden, Germany and Poland had been informed and “we will inform and approach Russia in this case”.

He said the Danish Foreign Intelligence Service does not see an increased military threat against Denmark after the three leaks in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines.

Gas pipeline leaks, however, in the Baltic have created foam on the surface of the water, as shown in images released by the Danish military. Danish Energy Minister Dan Jørgensen said “we cannot say how long the leak will continue” as the gas has not been shut off and there is currently no word on when it will be shut off.

German pipeline operator Nord Stream AG said it was preparing an investigation to assess the damage.

“Currently, it is not possible to estimate a timetable for the restoration of natural gas transmission infrastructure,” the company said in a statement. “The causes of the incident will be clarified as a result of the investigation.”

In Sweden, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said it was “probably sabotage” but not an attack on Sweden.

Andersson added that neighboring oil-rich Norway “has informed us of increased drone activity in the North Sea and the measures they have taken in relation to it”.

Foreign Minister Ann Linde said Sweden “is not ruling out any scenario and we will not speculate about the motive or the perpetrator.”

And great ecological disaster from the natural gas leak

Natural gas leaking into the Baltic consists almost entirely of methane – the second largest contributor to climate change after carbon dioxide. David Hastings, a retired chemical oceanographer in Gainesville, Fla., said much of the gas will rise through the sea and enter the atmosphere. “There’s no doubt that the biggest environmental impact of this is on the climate, because methane is a really strong greenhouse gas“, he stated.

According to United Nations data, methane is 82.5 times worse for the climate than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period because it absorbs the sun’s heat so effectively.

The pipeline that sends gas from Denmark to Poland was also inaugurated

Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki called the events “an act of sabotage”. During a ceremony in northwestern Poland, Morawiecki, Frederiksen and Polish President Andrzej Duda symbolically opened the valve of a yellow pipe belonging to the Baltic Pipe, a new system that sends Norwegian natural gas through Denmark to Poland.

“The era of Russian dominance in the natural gas sector is coming to an end,” Moravetsky said. “A time marked by extortion, threats and extortion,” he added.

Everything points to the Russian finger

No official has offered evidence of what caused the leaks, but with distrust of Russia running high, some feared Moscow sabotaged its own infrastructure out of spite or to warn that the pipelines were vulnerable to attack. The leaks raised interest in whether energy infrastructure is being targeted and led to a small rise in natural gas prices.

“We can clearly see that this is an act of sabotage, an act that probably means a next step in the escalation of the situation we are facing in Ukraine,” Morawiecki said.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken spoke with Danish Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod about the apparent sabotage, according to State Department spokesman Ned Price, who reiterated the US is committed to advancing European energy security.

Anders Puck Nielsen, a researcher at the Center for Naval Operations at the Royal Danish Defense College, said the timing of the leaks was “obvious” given the Baltic Pipe ceremony. He said that perhaps someone sought to “send a message that something might happen with Norwegian gas”.