Ursula von der Leyen is said to be the clear favorite for a second term in the Commission, but the truth is that her victory is not guaranteed. A fascinating new game has been played in Brussels in recent days – mainly by politicians, diplomats and officials critical of the Commission chief – as to who could take the job if not von der Leyen?
POLITICO presents her competitors for the presidency of the European Commission:
Mario Draghi
Why; The 76-year-old led a broad-based Italian coalition until it collapsed in 2022. His name often comes up when international leadership positions are left vacant. So far, the former Italian prime minister and president of the European Central Bank has been mainly linked to the position of president of the European Council, when Charles Michel leaves.
Draghi is already back on the EU political scene, working on an official Brussels plan to make the bloc more competitive, which he will implement immediately after the EU elections, when European leaders will haggle over top jobs. In addition, he is close to the French president, Emmanuel Macron.
Why not; The Italian has no clear political convictions and it is difficult to understand why the EPP would hand over the powerful position of Commission president to someone with no clear political positions.
Roberta Metzola
Why; The EPP is unlikely to resign from the leadership of the Commission in the next term. However, if von der Leyen doesn’t get the support she needs, Roberta Metzola could come out on top.
As the president of the European Parliament has managed to stay above political controversy, a tactic that has helped her in the past to secure her current position, she has also shown leadership on foreign policy and was the first EU leader to visit Kyiv since invasion of Russia in February 2022. Hailing from Malta, Metsola could be a win for southern Europe when the top jobs are up for grabs. Last week he posted a picture on Instagram with Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Donald Tusk – a hint, perhaps, that whatever the job is, it has high-level backing.
Why not; Malta is the smallest country in the EU, both in terms of size and population. Metsola has no executive experience, even in her home country. Her conservative record on abortion was used against her at the start of her presidency of the EU body.
Christine Lagarde
Why; Because she’s French.
Macron’s reluctance to back von der Leyen for the top job raises an obvious question: After five years of German rule and an even longer period of Germans or Austrians holding the key post of Commission chief of staff, Macron wants a Frenchman or a French woman to head the Commission? As a former finance minister and current president of the European Central Bank, Lagarde would bring the context of senior management experience and has the added advantage of being a woman.
Why not; Because she’s French. (Also: She’s not terribly popular with her staff).
There is no indication that Lagarde would be willing to leave the ECB before the end of her eight-year term, or even that the Elysees are seriously considering promoting her name. Since leaving the IMF, Lagarde’s name has come up in almost every French government reshuffle as a potential minister.
Klaus Johannis
Why; The Romanian president is seen as a “steady hand” and is a favorite of European leaders, particularly among conservatives. Both Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have been praised for keeping their country in the pro-Western and pro-EU camp after Russia invaded Ukraine – something that cannot be said for Hungary, Slovakia or Bulgaria. Unlike Poland, Romania also strictly adhered to EU single market rules and did not unilaterally impose restrictions on Ukrainian grain – bolstering Ioannis’ reputation as a pro-EU player.
Many argue that it is time for an Eastern European to lead the EU. If so, the German-speaking Johannes is well placed, coming from the same EPP political family as von der Leyen. The EPP’s decision to hold its electoral conference in Bucharest also testifies to its position among the group’s conservative leaders.
With his second term ending in December, Iohannis is looking for a top international position. Last month he agreed to be the next NATO leader – but that will be an uphill battle given the broad support of Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
Why not; Johannes’s last-minute attempt to steal the NATO leadership role from Rutte has upset some Western European countries.
Andrei Plenkovic
Why; Croatia’s Prime Minister, Andrej Plenkovic, is also from the EPP, and as with Iohannis, his appointment would respond to growing calls for Eastern Europe to take the top spot. Choosing a Croat as Commission president would also send a positive message to would-be EU members (Croatia is the newest EU entrant). Plenkovic’s surprise announcement that he will head the list of MEP candidates for Croatia’s ruling HDZ party has some suspecting he wants to leave domestic politics. His experience as Prime Minister since 2016 has certainly given him power and networking opportunities with his fellow European leaders.
Why not; Plenkovic dismissed rumors that he could replace von der Leyen, which of course could be seen as a good indication that he is interested in the job.
Thierry Breton
Why; He is French. Breton told POLITICO last year that he was a “Plan B” candidate to become European commissioner in 2019, but he made it through. He has strongly hinted that he is open to doing “Plan B” again if von der Leyen’s candidacy doesn’t pan out. As a former French finance minister, Breton has senior management experience and, although not from the EPP, is a conservative. His track record as a former chief executive who brought industrial policy back onto the Commission’s agenda allows him to argue that he should lead an EU that is much more focused on competitiveness.
Breton has also emerged as von der Leyen’s most senior critic in Brussels. In a tweet after her nomination as an EPP candidate, Breton noted that the head of the Commission did not exactly have unanimous support in the EPP for a second term. He was also part of the group of commissioners who criticized the choice of Marcus Pieper as the Commission’s envoy for small and medium-sized enterprises. And while a senior French official told POLITICO that Macron was “furious” about the tweet about von der Leyen, other French officials said at the time that the president wasn’t that upset after all.
Why not; Breton may have more enemies than friends in top EU circles, including within the Commission and among many EU countries, with many questioning his track record. His brash self-promotion and reputation for talking too much has angered fellow Commissioners – chief among them Competition chief Margrethe Vestager, but also many of the staff and civil servants he was supposed to work with.
A scathing (and anonymous!) article published in the French newspaper Atlantico described Breton as “the worst French commissioner in 30 years”, suggesting he has rivals determined to undermine him. Furthermore, he is not an EPP and the controversy surrounding his tenure as head of French technology company Atos is seen as a major liability for any potential confirmation by the European Parliament.
A surprise
Why; The prolonged “trading” of candidates between political groups for Europe’s top jobs, after the EU elections, is always full of surprises. Back in 2019, no one would have bet on von der Leyen becoming Commission president. Brussels could well be surprised by a candidate they have never heard of or met before.
Why not; We have no idea who it might be (otherwise it wouldn’t be a surprise).
