Russian troops are 20 miles outside of Krasnoarmeysk, meaning they are advancing relentlessly. What could the new American aid to Ukraine, equal to ten times Greece’s defense budget, do?
After many months of consultations and negotiations, the bill that includes the package to Israel and Ukraine – amounting to 61 billion dollars – got the “green light” after passing the House of Representatives on Saturday, April 20.
Of the $60 billion, about $23 billion will be used to renew U.S. weapons, stockpiles and facilities, and more than $11 billion will fund ongoing U.S. military operations in the region.
Finally, $14 billion, already included in the bill, would help Ukraine buy advanced weapons systems and other defense equipment.
So, will US support save Ukraine from looming defeat? For University of Birmingham Professor of International Security Stephen Wolff, the answer is not so clear. “To be sure, it gives Ukraine a breather on the battlefield – and a chance to stop a slow but steady Russian offensive that has made significant territorial gains for Moscow in recent months,” Wolff said in his analysis in The Conversation.
“It will take time for this equipment to reach the Ukrainians and for them to be trained to use it”
Visiting professor at King’s College London and senior associate at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft Anatol Lieven agrees in the same position, considering that American aid is only critical to help the Ukrainians keep their positions.
“It will take time for this equipment to reach the Ukrainians and for them to be trained to use it,” he says, stressing that this is not guaranteed to prevent further Russian victories this year.
“What we have to be more skeptical about is whether it will help the Ukrainians to fight back, because we remember that last year large amounts of aid did not really help the Ukrainians make a difference. So I think that this aid will maintain the situation as it is on the front, it will not decisively turn the game around,” Lieven says in an interview with the BBC.
Even if we were to take the hypothetical optimistic scenario of a dramatic increase in Western defense industrial production, Wolff doubts the balance of power would be unlikely to change in the near future.
Ukrainian military BM-21 Grad missile system (REUTERS/Oleksandr Ratushniak).
“Russia, at this moment in any case, still has clear advantages in human resources. It also enjoys air superiority in light of depleted Ukrainian air defense systems and has the operational momentum on the battlefield. If anything, Russia will now double down on its current offensive thrusts,” Wofl says.
Besides, according to the international expert from the University of Birmingham, the West has other headaches to deal with. Along with the Ukraine bill, the US House of Representatives also voted in favor of military support for Israel and Taiwan, potentially approving a combined total of about $100 billion.
Wolff estimates that with the US debt at 34 trillion. USD – which increases by 1 trillion. USD every 100 days – the long-term sustainability of such aid packages is called into question.
So for Wolff, predictions that Ukraine will win the war within a year thanks to this additional US support are at best overly optimistic and at worst dangerously delusional.
A more realistic assessment would be that the resolve that the West appears to be rediscovering more broadly in its support for Ukraine will give Kiev an opportunity to improve its bargaining position when the two sides finally sit down at the negotiating table.
