The next day’s debate in the blue camp and beyond is about where the Spartan voters will head “en bloc” with Maximus staff, who specialize in election analysis, predicting how the cat hunt can continue with the mouse if Mr. Kasidiaris chooses again to direct his followers to a party and that the Government is not going to receive votes from this area in the European elections.
They do not expect ND voters from the Spartans
In the New Democracy there is widespread satisfaction as it was the Government of the New Democracy which legislated the law by which the Spartans were “cut”.
Furthermore, the ND’s memorandum to the Supreme Court was accompanied by supporting documentation of 200 pages, where the sequence of events during the pre-election period of 2023, during the period after the parliamentary elections and in view of the municipal elections of the same year was thoroughly developed, as and until today which highlighted the role of Ilias Kasidiaris as the real leader of the “SPARTATES” party from the day of providing support to it until today.
However, the prevailing analysis in the Government says that votes from the Spartans are not expected to go to the ND in the European elections on May 9, as not only the ND took the initiative for the law that blocks them, but it is also the party that led to the prison Golden Dawn leaders.
The three scenarios for the Spartan votes
In a CNN Greece conversation with senior Government officials, there is the belief that these 245,000 votes, if they are not completely lost as was the case in May 2023, then they will be directed “en bloc” to some small far-right party. Of course, according to the latest opinion polls, the voters of this area are now much less.
The scenarios explained by a government official to CNN Greece are three. Either these voters will head to the beaches on June 9th, or they will be led to void/white, or they will go on instructions to a far-right party following the model of the partnership with the Spartans.
According to the blue analysis, it is unlikely that these 245,000 votes will go to any of the existing right-wing parties as the characteristics of the far-right parties in the Parliament are completely different and are not ideologically directly linked to the Spartans.
Fears of a new Kasidiaris “deal” just before the polls
However, no one could exclude the imprisoned Kasidiaris from trying to make a new deal with another existing party in view of the European elections. The deal could provide for the strengthening of an existing party that is low in opinion polls in exchange for the election of its leader in the European Parliament.
“The competition in the far-right space is reflected”
CNN Greece spoke with the experienced political analyst and Associate Professor of Political Behavior at the University of Macedonia Giannis Konstantinidis on the occasion of the involvement in the incident of a member of parliament elected with the Spartans and a member of the Hellenic Solution, but also given the non-participation of the Spartans in the June elections for how the battle in the “far-right” space developed.
The episode of violence in the Parliament – although it contained features of a personal vendetta due to the involvement of the family of one of the two deputies in the confrontation – indeed reflects the competition of various parties within the “far-right” space, comments Mr. Konstantinidis. He adds that the large electoral offer in this area fragments the also increased electoral demand and therefore creates tensions between the parties.
“The Greek solution will hardly be favored”
The exclusion of the Spartans, however, would hardly favor the Greek solution, even before today’s event, Mr. Konstantinidis emphasizes to CNN Greece.
“The vote for the Spartans – or earlier for the Golden Dawn or the Greeks of Ilias Kasidiaris – shows particularities. This is a public that strongly opposes all the other parties, which it judges as systemic and insufficient to express their anger on the one hand, and their nationalism and conservatism on the other. For this reason, the option of abstaining from the June elections, from which the Spartans were excluded, seems to be the most prevalent,” he declares.
Mr. Konstantinidis, however, emphasizes that the possibility of direct reinforcement of a specific party in the field at the last moment should not be ruled out, given the ease with which it was demonstrated last year that this part of the electorate can be guided.
“It seems more likely that this party is a new or at any rate small and non-parliamentary party, and not the Greek Solution, because that would allow Ilias Kasidiaris and the Spartans to be credited with any of his success,” says Mr. Konstantinidis.
Government officials commented that in this case the cat and mouse hunt will continue.
