By Apostolos Manthos
The Banking Index is trading at the lowest levels of the last 78 days, being almost +9% away from the highs it had reached at the beginning of March at 1,270 points. During last Thursday’s session at the time of writing, the index was trading at 1,169 points, standing noticeably lazily between the resistance of 1,185 points and the support of 1,145 points. These are diagrammatic points that, if in the following sessions they break up or down, they will also give the bullish target on the daily price chart.
Thus, in the event that the index passes with an increased banking transaction turnover above 1,200 units, the green carpet of the rise towards 1,242 units will be spread, where both local peaks have been recorded. However, if the indicator breaks below 1,145 points, then the sellers will roll out the red carpet for the descent towards the critical 1,110 to 1,100 chart support zone, causing intense concern in the buying camp.
According to the current capitalizations of the four big banking houses, the losses they have suffered since their highs exceed 2 billion euros, since they have fallen from 23.6 billion euros to 21.53 billion euros. Piraeus has the biggest losses, by 577 million euros, while National Bank has the smallest, by 411 million euros.
However, in percentage terms, in relation to the highs they wrote in 2024, the biggest fall, by -13.2%, is the share of Alpha Bank, thus continuing to cause problems with its behavior on the board in relation to the rest bank ladies.
Moving on to the individual chart analyses, I will start with the first one in capitalization Eurobank (EURO) of 6.73 billion euros. So here we see the stock on the three-day price chart taking prices above the strong support level of €1.75 to €1.72, while it is also slightly higher than the last 100-day Vwap, which is located at €1.7845 . As long as the stock does not go to write consecutive daily closes below 1.72 euros, it will continue to measure its strength to try once again to reach the threshold of 2 euros. Certainly a bearish breach of EUR 1.72 will signal the start of a downward move towards EUR 1.60, thus triggering a sharp short-term chart pattern change.
Caught between the range of 7.50 and 7 euros appears on the weekly price chart the share National Bank (EBIT). In fact, the last weekly candlestick seems to be in the mood to close below 7 euros, spoiling the entire stabilization formation that has been holding since the end of January. Such a chart event may provide fodder to sellers for an awkward move down in the stock beyond the fragile €6.80 support level, thus opening the communication channel to the important €6.50 support area. Here the Vwap of the last 100 days is at 7.038 euros.
Time appears to be running out for its stock Piraeus (PEIR), with most oscillators looking for a bearish resolution of the support zone extending from €3.70 to €3.65. In any case, the capture of such a diagrammatic gap will open the bag of Aeolos for the stock, pushing it below 3.50 euros. However, until such a thing happens, the stock will try to go on the counterattack, writing prices above the short-term milestone of 3.87 euros. The 100-day Vwap is located due to the public offer at 4 euros, while when we remove it from the data it comes to 3.925 euros.
Finally, for its diagrammatic presence Alpha Bank (ALPHA) we would associate it with “they built it all day, it was torn down at night”. So, where the stock was trying to build a wave of buyers above the level of 1.70 to 1.68 euros in order to move strongly upwards towards 1.90 to 2 euros, it collapsed towards 1.50 euros. In fact, in its downward course it also took with it the upward trend line offered by the 21-week Fibonacci simple moving average from October 2023. For something to change for the better, the stock should recover the height of 1.68 euros. Only then could we reverse the existing short-term chart strategy, giving as a new target the seizure of the level of 1.79 to 1.80 euros. The Vwap of the last 100 days is located at 1.6975 euros, i.e. inside the former buyer’s trough.
* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis & investment strategy
** Republished from the newspaper “Kefalaio”
