The US has approved a vital $60bn aid package for Ukraine, raising Kiev’s hopes. However, the question is whether US weapons will arrive in time to change the picture on the battlefields which – at this stage – is bleak for Kiev. In recent days, Russian forces have made new territorial gains on the eastern front and are continuing to advance.
“Russia is advancing”
According to US and UK officials, the Russian military is increasing pressure on depleted Ukrainian forces waiting for vital US equipment, and in some areas has accelerated their advance.
According to White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, Russia’s military is moving against defense lines west of the city of Bakhmut in Donetsk, which is already under Russian control. Further south, according to British military intelligence, Russian troops are accelerating their advance west of Avdiivka, a Ukrainian stronghold that fell last February.
“It’s slow progress, but they are pushing Ukraine’s lines, in the first, second and even the defense zone. And that’s dangerous,” Kirby told NBC. Anonymous US officials, according to Bloomberg, say Russian troops have made impressive progress along the 1,200-kilometer (750-mile) front.
Ukraine’s artillery is “starving”
John Kirby emphasized that critical US weapons will arrive “very, very soon” and could change the tide of war, which is tilting in favor of Russia. Analysts, however, have expressed serious reservations about the possibility of overturning the situation, considering that it is most likely just to buy some time for Kiev.
Some do not express concerns that it might be too late for Ukraine, as the six months of delay have created a terribly difficult situation for the Ukrainian forces, which in addition to a lack of weapons and ammunition, also has a huge personnel problem. “We need ammunition … our artillery is starving,” an artillery commander told CNN, commenting on Congress passing a Ukraine aid bill.
However, Volodymyr Zelensky continues to be optimistic. “We can even now, not only stabilize the front, but also go on a counterattack achieving our goals,” claimed the president of Ukraine
“We can still now not only stabilize the front, but also move forward, achieving our Ukrainian goals in the war,” Zelensky said to Western allies.
On Friday, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed the commitment of $6 billion in arms contracts to Ukraine, including Patriot missiles, artillery ammunition and drones. This is a fund separate from the large package of 60 billion dollars, which aims to speed up the supply of weapons to Kiev. “We will go as fast as we can – as fast as the industry can produce,” the US defense secretary said.
The new goal of the Russian army
The Institute for the Study of War, the American think tank that has been closely following the military developments in Ukraine since the start of the war, describes the advance of the Russian army as “relatively fast”, although “marginal”. According to the Institute’s analysts, the retreat of the Ukrainians from Avdiivka to weaker defensive positions was a pivotal development.
However, as they note, the most important thing for the Russians at this stage is to capture Chasiv Yar, an area west of Bakhmut of great strategic importance, from where Russian forces will be able to launch attacks against important Ukrainian defense positions on its periphery Donetsk. They estimate that Moscow will speed up operations in Chasiv Yar, to capture it before the new American weapons arrive in Ukraine.
It is noted that the Russian forces have also increased attacks against military installations and logistics infrastructure, in the rear lines, possibly in an attempt to limit the influx of weapons from the US.
