In view of the crucial elections for the European Parliament in June, the next question that arises is who will be the next head of the European Commission, with the outgoing president having announced her candidacy for a second term at the helm of the Commission without, however, being considered certain her re-election.
As Politico notes in an article, this means an exciting new game is being played in town, particularly by politicians, diplomats and officials who have been critical of the Commission chief.
The publication refers to the names that have fallen on the table as alternatives to the candidacy of Ursula von der Leyen, but even as a lever of pressure to extract concessions from her.
At the same time, Politico reports that the list below does not list the main candidates of the political parties competing against von der Leyen, but notes that the European People’s Party is unlikely to give up the Commission presidency if it remains the biggest political force in Brussels.
Mario Draghi
Why; The 76-year-old led an Italian coalition until it collapsed in 2022, and his name often comes up when international leadership roles become vacant. So far, the former Italian prime minister and president of the European Central Bank has been mainly linked to the position of president of the European Council (when Charles Michel leaves).
Draghi is already back on the EU political stage, working on an official Brussels plan to make the bloc more competitive, which he will implement immediately after the EU elections. He is also close to French President Emmanuel Macron.
Why not; The Italian does not have clear political beliefs and it is difficult to understand why the EPP would hand over the powerful position of Commission president to someone with no clear political commitments.
Roberta Metzola
Why; As mentioned above, the EPP is unlikely to resign from the leadership of the Commission in the next term. However, if von der Leyen does not get the support she needs, the EPP’s other leading female candidate could emerge.
European Parliament President Metsola has managed to stay above the political fray, a tactic that has helped her in the past secure her current position. At the same time, she has shown leadership in foreign policy and was the first EU leader to visit Kiev after Russia invaded in February 2022. Originally from Malta, Metzola could be seen as a victory for southern Europe. In an Instagram post last week, Metsola was seen with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk – a hint that whatever the position, she has support.
Why not; Malta is the smallest country in the EU, both in size and population. Metsola has no executive experience either, even in her home country. Her conservative record on abortion was used against her at the start of her presidency of the EU legislature.
Christine Lagarde
Why; Because she’s French. Macron’s reluctance to back von der Leyen for the top job raises an obvious question: After five years of German rule and an even longer period of Germans or Austrians holding the key position of Commission head, does Macron want a Frenchman at the Commission presidency? As a former finance minister and current president of the European Central Bank, Lagarde would bring her experience to bear while having the added advantage of being a woman.
Why not; Because she’s French. (Also: She is unpopular with her staff.)
There is no indication that Lagarde would be willing to leave the ECB before the end of her eight-year term, or even that France is seriously considering putting her name forward. Since leaving the IMF, Lagarde’s name has come up in almost every French government reshuffle as a potential minister.
Klaus Johannis
Why; The Romanian president is considered a stable card and is a favorite of European leaders, especially conservatives. Both Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have praised him for keeping his country in the pro-Western and pro-EU camp after Russia invaded Ukraine – something that cannot be said for Hungary, Slovakia or Bulgaria. Unlike Poland, Romania also strictly adhered to EU single market rules and did not unilaterally impose restrictions on Ukrainian grain, bolstering Iohannis’ reputation as a pro-European team player.
Many argue that it is time for an Eastern European to lead the EU. The German-speaking Johannis is in a good position as he comes from the same EPP political family as von der Leyen. The EPP’s decision to hold its electoral conference in Bucharest also demonstrates its position among the group’s conservative leaders.
With his second term ending in December, Iohannis is looking for a top international position. Last month he agreed to run as the next NATO leader, but that will be an uphill battle given the broad support of Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
Why not; Johannis’s last-minute attempt to steal the NATO leadership role from Rutte has upset some Western European countries.
Andrei Plenkovic
Why; Its prime minister Croatia’s Andrej Plenkovic also comes from the EPP, and as with Yohannis, his appointment would satisfy growing calls for a top-ranking leader from East Europe. Choosing a Croat as Commission president would also send a positive message to would-be EU members (Croatia is the latest country to join the EU). Plenkovic’s surprise announcement that he will head the list of MEP candidates for Croatia’s ruling HDZ party has led some to suspect he wants to leave domestic politics. His experience as prime minister since 2016 has certainly given him prestige and networking opportunities with fellow European leaders.
Why not; Plenkovic has dismissed rumors that he could replace von der Leyen, which of course could be seen as a good indication that he is interested in the position.
Thierry Breton
Why; He is French. Breton told POLITICO last year that he was the “Plan B” for the 2019 European Commissioner election (he only took the position after the first choice, Sylvie Goulart, was eliminated). He has strongly hinted that he is open to being Plan B again, should von der Leyen’s candidacy fail. As a former French finance minister, Breton has experience in senior management, and although he does not come from the EPP, he leans towards the conservative party. His track record as a former chief executive who brought industrial policy back onto the Commission’s agenda allows him to argue that he should lead an EU executive that focuses much more on competitiveness.
Breton has also emerged as von der Leyen’s fiercest critic In an infamous tweet after she emerged as the EPP’s lead candidate, Breton noted that the Commission chief did not exactly have unanimous support within the EPP for a second term. He was also part of the group of commissioners who criticized her choice of Marcus Pieper as the Media Commission’s envoy. And while a senior French official told POLITICO that Macron was “furious” about the tweet against von der Leyen, other French officials said “the president” wasn’t that bothered after all.
Why not; Breton may have more enemies than friends in top EU circles, including in the Commission and in many EU countries, with many questioning his track record. His self-promotion and reputation for talking before he delivers results has annoyed his fellow commissioners – most notably competition commission chief Margrethe Vestager, but also many of the staff and civil servants he is supposed to work with.
An article published in the French magazine Atlantico described Breton as “the worst French commissioner of the last 30 years”, suggesting he has rivals. In addition, he is not a member of the EPP, and the controversy surrounding his passing as head of French technology company Atos is considered a major drag.
A surprise
Why; The protracted haggling between political groups for Europe’s top jobs after the European elections is always full of surprises. Back in 2019, no one would have bet that von der Leyen would become president of the Commission – so the surprise could come from a candidate that Brussels has never heard of or met before. Why not; We have no idea who it might be (otherwise it wouldn’t be a surprise).
Tags: Politico Ursula von der Leyens rivals presidency Commission
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