The Commission after von der Leyen

The president of the European Commission is currently the favourite to get a second term in the EU executive, however there are now apparently other “suitors” for her position.

Politico reports that a “fascinating game” is being played in Brussels right now, with many involved, from politicians, diplomats and officials tothey criticize Ursula von der Leyen, up to journalists. In any case, Politico reports that the European People’s Party is unlikely to step down from the Commission presidency if it remains the biggest political force in Brussels after June’s European elections.

Politico notes that in 2019 no one was betting on von der Leyen becoming president of the Commission, leaving open the possibility that other nominations could emerge given the president’s unpopularity right now. After all, a few hours ago, a Bloomberg article reported that Emmanuel Macron has taken initiatives to pit Mario Draghi against von der Leyen.

Von der Leyen faces criticism for how he has run the Commission over the past five years, particularly on trade negotiations, the EU’s climate transition and relations with the US, while Macron himself has been an open critic of its performance. It is of course not clear whether Macron whether he will ultimately advance another candidate, or if he wants to pressure von der Leyen’s side to serve his own interests.

In each case von der Leyen is still the favorite as she is the lead candidate of the EPP; which is expected to win the most votes in June.

Von der Leyen’s “opponents” according to Politico:

Mario Draghi – Mario Draghi

Why; The 76-year-old led a broad Italian coalition until it collapsed in 2022 and his name often comes up when international leadership roles are vacant. So far, the former Prime Minister of Italy and President of the European Central Bank he has been mainly linked to the position of president of the European Council (when Charles Michel leaves).

Draghi has already returned to EU politics, working on an official Brussels plan to make the bloc more competitive, which he will deliver soon after EU elections, when European leaders haggle over its top jobs. block. On top of that, he is close to French President Emmanuel Macron.

Why not; The Italian does not have a clear political position and it is difficult to understand why the EPP would hand over the powerful position of Commission president to someone with no clear political allegiance, as Politico points out.

Roberta Metsola – Roberta Metsola

Why; As mentioned above, the EPP is unlikely to give up the leadership of the Commission during the next term. However, if von der Leyen does not get the support she needs, another leading female EPP candidate could emerge.

As President of the European Parliament, Metsola has managed to stay above the political controversy, a tactic that previously helped her secure her current position. At the same time she has shown leadership in foreign policy and was the first EU leader to visit Kiev after Russia invaded in February 2022. Originally from Malta, Mestola could be a win for southern Europe when they share the top jobs. In an Instagram post last week Metsola was seen with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk – a hint that she may have high-level support.

Why not; Malta is the smallest country in the EU, both in size and population. Also, Metsola has no executive experience, even in her home country. Her conservative record on abortion was used against her at the start of her presidency of the EU legislature.

Christine Lagarde – Christine Lagarde

Why; Because she’s French. Macron’s reluctance to back von der Leyen for the top job raises an obvious question: After five years of German rule and an even longer period of Germans or Austrians holding the key position of chief of staff to the Commission president, will did Macron want a French woman to run the Commission?

As former Minister of Finance and current President of the European Central Bank, Lagarde could put that on her CV too and she has the added bonus of being a woman.

Why not; Because she’s French. (Also: Not very popular with ECB staff).

There is no indication that Lagarde would be willing to leave the ECB before the end of her eight-year term, nor that the Élysée is seriously considering putting her name forward. Since leaving the IMF, Lagarde’s name has also appeared in almost every French government reshuffle as a potential minister.

Klaus Iohannis – Klaus Iohannis

Why; The president of Romania is considered a stable card and is the favorite of European leaders, especially conservatives. Both Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have praised him for keeping his country anchored in the pro-Western and pro-EU camp after Russia invaded Ukraine – something that cannot be said for Hungary, Slovakia or Bulgaria. Unlike Poland, Romania also strictly adhered to EU single market rules and did not unilaterally impose restrictions on Ukrainian grain – reinforcing Johannis’ reputation as a pro-European team player.

Many argue that the time has come for an Eastern European to lead the EU. If that is the case, the German-speaking Johannis is in good “fate”, as he comes from the same political family of the EPP as von der Leyen. The EPP’s decision to hold its electoral conference in Bucharest also testifies to its position among the group’s conservative leaders.

With his second term ending in December, Iohannis is looking for a top international position. Last month he agreed to run as the next leader of NATO – but this will be an uphill battle given the broad support of Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

Why not; Johannis’s last-minute attempt to steal the NATO leadership role from Rutte has upset some Western European countries.

Andrej Plenković – Andrej Plenković

Why; Croatia’s Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic is also from the EPP, and as with Iohannis, his appointment would respond to growing calls for for Eastern Europe to gain a leading position. Choosing a Croat as president of the Commission would also send a positive message to would-be EU members (Croatia is the newest member state to join the EU). The surprising one Plenkovic’s announcement that he will head the MEP candidate list of Croatia’s ruling HDZ party has led some to suspect that he wants to leave domestic politics. His experience as prime minister since 2016 has certainly given him prestige and networking opportunities with fellow European leaders.

Why not; Plenkovic has dismissed rumors that he could replace von der Leyen, which of course could be seen as a good indication that he is interested in the position.

Thierry Breton – Thierry Breton

Why; He is French. Breton told POLITICO last year that he was a “Plan B” candidate to become European commissioner in 2019 (he took the position only after the first choice, Sylvie Goulart, disqualified during confirmation hearings in Parliament). He has strongly hinted that he is open to being “Plan B” again, should von der Leyen’s candidacy fail. As a former French finance minister, Breton has experience in senior management, and although he does not come from the EPP, he leans towards the conservative party. His background as a former CEO which put industrial policy back on the Commission’s agenda it allows him to argue that he should lead an EU executive that focuses much more on competitiveness.

Breton has also emerged as von der Leyen’s critic. In an infamous tweet following her emergence as the EPP’s lead candidate, Breton noted that the Commission chief did not exactly have unanimous support within the EPP for a second term. He was also part of the panel of commissioners who criticized her choice for Marcus Pieper as Commission Envoy for the Media. And while a senior French official told POLITICO that Macron was “furious” about the tweet, other French officials have since said “the president” wasn’t that upset after all.

Why not; Breton may have more enemies than friends in top EU circles, including in the Commission and in many EU countries, with many questioning his track record. His self-promotion and reputation for talking too much before showing results has annoyed his fellow commissioners – most notably competition chief Margrethe Vestager, but also many of the staff and civil servants he was supposed to work with.

A critical (and anonymous) article published in the French magazine Atlantico described Breton as as “the worst French commissioner of the last 30 years”, suggesting that he has rivals determined to undermine him. Furthermore, is not a member of the EPP, and the controversy surrounding his passing as head of French technology company Atos, is seen as a major drag on any possible confirmation of his candidacy by the European Parliament.

A surprise

Why; The protracted haggling between political groups for Europe’s top jobs after the European elections is always full of surprises. Back in 2019, no one would have bet on von der Leyen becoming Commission President – Brussels could well be surprised by a candidate they have never heard of or met before.

Why not; We have no idea who that surprise might be (otherwise it wouldn’t be a surprise), POLITICO concludes in its analysis.