By Zuzanna Gwadera
On March 12, the US State Department approved a potential foreign military sale of multiple types of air-to-air missiles to Poland. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced the decision on the day Polish President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Donald Tusk visited the White House.
More specifically, the DSCA approved the potential sale of $1.77 billion in hardware that includes up to 821 AGM-158B-2 JASSM-ER air-attack cruise missiles (LACMs), as well as related equipment and support.
It is a cruise missile (Air to Ground Missile), with stealth characteristics, designed to destroy high-value targets, launched from aircraft outside the radius of the enemy’s air defense, with a range of more than 930 kilometers.
Warsaw first purchased the JASSM-ER in December 2016 – 70 of them, for use on the F-16C/D (Block 52+) Fighting Falcon – as part of a broader effort to improve its long-range strike capability. The first deliveries were received in January 2017. The missile’s manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, is working to integrate the JASSM into the F-35 Lightning II fighter jet. Poland bought 32 F-35A fighters in 2020, which are expected to be delivered from 2025.
The US Air Force’s operational concept behind the JASSM-ER is to use the weapon in the early stages of a conflict (before air superiority is re-established) and later against high-value targets with strong defenses. The missile’s range allows operators to strike an adversary’s terrain at standoff range, reducing the risk of aircraft being engaged by long-range air defenses. If the sale goes ahead as planned, it will more than tenfold Poland’s JASSM-ER arsenal – allowing the Polish Air Force to have a variety of targets.
Warsaw’s long-term ambitions
Poland has sought to strengthen its long-range strike and deterrence capabilities since 2013. This imperative has increased following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In addition to JASSM-ER, Warsaw has previously expressed interest in the procurement of the UGM-109 Tomahawk LACM for its planned diesel submarines under the Orka program. The Tomahawk is capable of carrying a 450 kg warhead to a range of 1,600 km. The submarine program is currently in the market consultation phase with delivery unlikely to happen before 2030.
The Polish Navy also plans to acquire new vessels that will be equipped with the Mk 41 vertical launch system. These vessels, which may be able to launch the Tomahawk, are not scheduled to be delivered before 2028. While the U.S. has become more receptive to Tomahawk exports – approving sales to Japan and Australia in 2022 and 2023, respectively – Washington may be more reluctant to export the missile to some Eastern European allies because of concerns about its range: launched from anywhere in Baltic Sea, Moscow is within the missile’s range of more than 1,600 km.
As Poland’s naval reinforcement will take some time to bear fruit, expanding the depth of its air-launched missile stockpile may offer Warsaw a more readily available option to bolster its deterrent force – especially since it already has considerable experience with such systems.
Money matters
While the numbers of missiles the US State Department has approved for sale may not necessarily translate into final contract numbers, Poland appears determined to boost its long-range strike capability as part of a broader defense development.
In addition to the JASSM-ERs, the update from the State Department included the potential sale of up to 745 AIM-120C-8 advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles (AMRAAMs) for $1.69 billion and 232 AIM-9X Block II Sidewinder Tactical rockets for $219.1 million. Poland already uses both missiles on F-16C/D (Block 52+) Fighting Falcons. The Polish Air Force can also equip the Sidewinder with the 48 FA-50 and FA-50PL fighters Warsaw bought from South Korea in 2022, deliveries of which began in August 2023.
Poland increased its defense spending to 4.23% of GDP in the wake of Russia’s attack on Ukraine – more than double the NATO target of 2%. In recent years, Warsaw has made several major arms purchases, mainly from US and South Korean contractors. The details of these contracts, as well as the Armed Forces Support Fund recently introduced in Poland – to boost the resources of the Ministry of National Defense – remain largely hidden from the public. Warsaw appears, however, to have turned to creative ways of financing some of its major acquisitions, including through syndicated loans from foreign banks. However, disputes that have arisen over the financial terms of South Korea’s arms purchases from Poland have added to doubts about the sustainability of its spending increase.
Read the article in its original publication here.
Performance-Editor: Nikolas Sapundzoglou
