By James Stavridis*
Now that the US House of Representatives, acting in an unusually bipartisan manner, has finally passed a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine, the big question is what the Ukrainians will spend it on.
This help comes late. Russia is gaining momentum both on the ground and in the air, threatening a spring offensive that could break Ukrainian lines and threaten their major cities. These include Kharkiv – the largest city closest to the Russian border – and possibly Kiev itself, forcing the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to leave the capital.
CIA Director William Burns, a former ambassador to Russia, understands Russian President Vladimir Putin well. Burns said last week that without the new tranche of US aid, Ukraine risks losing the war within the year. But he also said that “with the boost that military aid would give, both practically and psychologically, the Ukrainians are perfectly capable of holding out until the end of 2024 and knocking down Putin’s cocky view that time is on his side.” .
So, with $61 billion in “gift loans” set to be approved this week by the Senate and the White House, what are Ukraine’s most critical needs? How quickly can further weapons and ammunition be transferred into the hands of the brave Kiev army?
The good news is that both the US and European defense systems have been preparing for this moment for the past few months. My successor as Supreme Allied Commander at NATO, General Chris Cavoli, said it is a big deal to turn on the faucet once US President Joe Biden signs the aid bill. Kavoli’s vast command – eight full battle groups in Eastern Europe alone – is ready to be fully mobilized to provide assistance.
Fortunately, almost 90% of the money for Ukraine will be spent on purchases from the US defense industrial base. This means that supplies and logistics are expected to flow relatively smoothly on well-trodden paths. Warehouses in Europe – managed by the US European Command and our NATO partners in Germany, Poland and other locations in Eastern Europe – are already full of weapons, particularly artillery shells, that could quickly move into Ukrainian hands. .
At the top of the list will be replenishing Ukraine’s air defenses. That means more surface-to-air missiles, from smaller systems like the NASAMS and MIM-23 HAWK systems, to the large Patriot arrays that proved so effective in defending Israel during the Iranian airstrike earlier this month. The Patriot and even larger Terminal High Altitude Defense (THAAD) systems can intercept Russian cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. These systems will not only protect civilians and critical infrastructure, such as the power grid, but will also be useful against Russian aircraft.
Next on the shopping list will be artillery ammunition. Throughout the hundreds of kilometers of the front that separates the two sides, artillery battles take place every day. Russia outnumbers the Ukrainians by sheer volume of fire. As in World War I, defensive trenches can help hold back the waves of foot soldiers the Russians use, but their artillery can pin down and eventually defeat the Ukrainians in the trenches. The most pressing need for Ukrainian artillery is millions of rounds of traditional 155mm howitzers, along with ammunition for smaller caliber guns.
Ukraine will also want to use the funds to finally get the 45 or so F-16 fighters it was promised by the West. These versatile fighter aircraft are capable of sustained defense against Russian fighters and bombers, precision air-to-ground attacks against Russian troops in the field and in the trenches, and electronic warfare and jamming that can mislead and defeat Russian cruise missiles . Ukrainian pilots have been training for months to fly them.
Another major need will be long-range surface-to-surface missiles. The US military’s HIMARS system is mobile and lethal. It can use accurate targeting data at ranges of 50+ miles and has been deployed with great effectiveness on the Ukrainian battlefield. Even better is the ATACMS System, a ballistic weapon with a range of 150 plus miles. Both can hit targets behind Russian front lines and destroy supply centers and command and control centers, especially in Crimea.
The war in Ukraine also became the first long-term conflict in which drones play a significant role. The drones have been vital for the Ukrainians in stopping the Russian advance. These drones rely on excellent command and control – most of which is provided via the internet and a network of satellites. This may be less “flashy” than ballistic missiles flying toward Crimea and fighter jets attacking Russian forces, but it is just as critical. The US package could allow the Ukrainians to develop a stronger strike force of drones with corresponding cybersecurity capabilities.
Since this $61 billion is less than 7% of the massive US defense budget, it represents an excellent return on investment for the American taxpayer. Almost all of the money will be spent back in the US, providing jobs and helping the economy, and will help weaken the military capability of an aggressive dictator without putting a single US service member at risk. These funds, along with the billions of dollars already provided and pledged by European allies (in total military and economic aid, the Europeans have given much more aid to Ukraine than the US), give Ukraine a fighting chance .
In 1941, UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill told the US, “Give us the tools and we’ll get the job done,” referring to the defeat of Nazi Germany. Today, another greedy enemy attacks a sovereign European state and seeks to undermine Western values globally. We need to stop Putin, and with the right set of tools provided by the US and Europe together, Ukraine can do the job too.
*James Stavridis is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, retired US Navy admiral, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, and dean emeritus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He is also vice president of global affairs at The Carlyle Group. He serves on the boards of American Water Works, Fortinet, PreVeil, NFP, Ankura Consulting Group, Titan Holdings, Michael Baker, and Neuberger Berman, and has been an advisor to Shield Capital, a cybersecurity investment firm.
