By Nikitas Simos
The next step is meteor. Is further escalation inevitable? Washington has said it would not support retaliation against Tehran, and everyone is reacting to Israel’s latest blow against Iran. The ultimate arbiter of the situation is Benjamin Netanyahu, the critical variable in the Israel-Iran power equation.
Support with caveats
Iran’s attack on Israel on 14/4 united many leaders in support of the Jewish state, but also in the simultaneous demand that Jerusalem show restraint. It was a rather controversial stance on the interpretation of which observers and analysts remain divided.
The retaliatory strike launched by Tehran in response to the bombing of its embassy in Damascus and the deaths of high-ranking Iranian officials, which it attributed to Israel, was a spectacular but carefully measured action, with the possibly latent objective of not provoking an Israeli reaction and the crisis to stop at this point.
During the emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, the Organization’s Secretary-General Gutierrez called on all parties to take a step back because neither the region nor the world can afford another war. A similar call was made by G7 leaders, who condemned Iran’s aggression while making it clear that escalation must be avoided.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the war council held back, saying that it is Israel that will choose the manner and timing of its response. After marathon meetings of the Israeli war council, intense pressure from the Western factor and especially the USA towards Israel and diligent diplomatic activity between the Arab states, China and Russia, Israel’s response, more symbolic, came 5 days later. This is more implied, as Jerusalem does not officially accept such a thing, while Iran hardly acknowledges the incident.
Some analysts link low-intensity Israeli action to a potentially informal US acceptance of extensive Israeli operations in Rafah. But there are no relevant indications.
In any case, Israel’s message to Tehran, that it has the will and the ability to strike Iran in depth, in an area vital to its nuclear program (Isfahan), with the same means flying over unfriendly territories without being detected, is a clear warning open to the future.
The US has made it clear that it does not want any further escalation, especially as President Biden’s election campaign progresses. But if the inevitable happens, then it would not be easy for Washington to stay out of the conflict.
Israel is not alone
It is important to appreciate how isolated Israel would be in a new escalation. Judging by the decisive role played by his allies during the development of the Iranian attack, in addition to the protection offered by Israeli anti-aircraft systems, so that the damage caused was small and without casualties, except for an injured young Bedouin woman, it could be argued that Israel would again have the support of its strategic allies, the US, the UK and France. Notably, the Jordanian Air Force and its air defenses shot down dozens of drones on their way to Israel, over Jordan. Possibly there would also be a tolerance if not indirect support from the UAE and S. Arabia, as in these countries, where Western anti-aircraft systems are installed, there are possibilities of aerial surveillance, while flying tankers are hosted.
A critical variable
Iran reacted on 14/4 in a proportional manner in order to maintain its prestige. The neutralization of the means of attack was considered a victory for Israel by President Biden, who called on the Israeli prime minister to take it and be content with it.
Netanyahu faced the possibility that an apparent success could turn into a gamble, with an unpredictable outcome, if he went ahead with massive retaliation under pressure from hardline members of the war council.
But the Israeli prime minister, a seasoned political animal, has balanced an intense fatigue and desire for peace at home with his intention to continue operations in Gaza, avoiding for now a direct escalation with Iran.
Israel’s longest-serving leader, despite his refusal to accept responsibility for the state’s failures to predict and prevent the tragic events of Oct. 7, 2023, remains in power while there are signs of an improvement in his popularity.
While his opponent Benny Gentz still dominates public opinion with 47%, according to a recent poll (The Jerusalem Post), Netanyahu follows with 35%, showing little improvement from 34% previously.
This, while 44% of public opinion believes that the war in Gaza is not over, although Israel withdrew its last division from the original 5 it had deployed, leaving behind a brigade. The serious possibility is that these forces will be deemed necessary for a ground escalation with Hezbollah, on the border with Lebanon.
But the environment that the Israeli administration is called upon to manage is destabilizing further, as the Iraqi Prime Minister Sudani, during his very recent visit to the USA, requested proposals from the American leadership for the removal of American forces from Iraq (2,500 personnel), which reinforce the Iraqi forces against ISIS.
In addition, Russia was added to the forces calling for calm (16/4), according to statements by President Putin. Russia-Iran relations are close, as it is known that the former cooperates in the production and import of drones from Iran for the war in Ukraine, while it is rumored that Iranian tankers transport Russian oil to global destinations.
However, some analysts believe that there will be a major Israeli attack on Iran in the next 18 months, as the production of enriched uranium continues and the possibility of an Iranian nuclear weapon is visible if there is no intervention. We remember that in 1984 Israel destroyed a nuclear reactor in Iraq with an air strike.
For years, Netanyahu has used harsh anti-Iranian rhetoric to his advantage, but has managed not to move from words to actions of broad confrontation, as he demonstrated a few days ago.
The region and the world community hope that the Israeli prime minister does not see the current uncertainty as another opportunity for political gain for him and his party. This, of course, is a great challenge, as he faces strong dilemmas regarding his political survival.
* Nikitas Simos is an Economist, Geopolitical Analyst
