Ukraine: How the $61 billion in US aid translates into the battlefield

The $61 billion US aid package to Ukraine voted in favor of by the House of Representatives on Saturday is expected to be signed in the coming days, and is seen as particularly necessary by Kiev as it is believed to bolster its defenses. country against Moscow and it will have an effect on the front as well.

However, one question that needs to be answered is what weapons can Ukraine obtain and what difference could they make in trying to stop the Russian advance?

Air defense systems, medium- and long-range missiles and artillery remain the weapons most urgently needed by Ukraine, so the BBC has carried out an analysis of where US aid could go in these three areas.

Air defense

Air defense and countering the Russian threat from the sky are vital to protecting cities and critical infrastructure, such as Ukraine’s energy facilities.

Last week Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that this year alone, his country had been attacked by nearly 1,200 Russian missiles, more than 1,500 drones and 8,500 guided bombs.

Ukraine has a variety of Western air defense systems ranging from short-range shoulder-launched Stinger missiles to the advanced – and extremely expensive – Patriot system. Zelensky said at least seven more Patriot or equivalent systems are needed.

Russian cruise missiles and ballistic missiles – including S-300 and S-400 surface-to-air missiles – along with hundreds of Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones – are difficult to counter due to the sheer volume of missiles being launched.

A classic tactic for neutralizing air defenses is to flood them with targets, thereby disorienting their radar and tracking systems and depleting their missile reserves.

Medium and long range missiles

But the war on the ground is vital. Since October, Ukraine has lost nearly 583 square kilometers of its eastern territory to Russian forces, largely due to a lack of artillery.

High Mobility Artillery Missile Systems (HIMARS) have played a critical role for Ukraine, delivering guided munitions from a mobile platform.

They arrive at the site, set up, detonate and move quickly before Russian forces can locate them and attack the launcher. More HIMARS systems capabilities are expected in Ukraine and perhaps a commitment to more tanks and Bradley infantry vehicles.

Also of particular importance will be the newest version of the US Army’s Long-Range Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which are said to be ready to be deployed. The older ATACMS systems have been in the country since late last year, but the newest version can double the range to 300km.

Acquiring such a system means it can take the war deeper into annexed Crimea, which Russia uses as an important air-protected naval base, and beyond.

Artillery shells

And of course the artillery weapons, such as the M777 howitzers which must be constantly fed with 155mm artillery rounds.

The United States has sent 2,000,000 such missiles to Ukraine since February 2022, and more will likely be sent in this latest package. They still have what they call a “very strong supply network” to move weapons quickly.

“As we have done in the past, we can move within days,” Pentagon spokesman Lt. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters last week.

The supplies are likely to have been moved closer to Ukraine, and once delivered they officially become Ukraine’s property. But getting equipment to the front line – particularly artillery equipment – could take several days or even weeks as Russian forces continue their push in the east.

F-16 fighter jets

Apart from the aid package there are also the F-16 jets, which are very close to being put into service. Ukrainian pilots and crews continue their training on the Western F-16s, which are currently based in Romania. These multi-role aircraft provide stronger air-to-air and air-to-ground capability, thus potentially improving Ukrainian air defenses.

Denmark, the Netherlands and the US expect to deliver the first of dozens of Vipers to Ukraine within months. The aircraft will not be a game changer, but they will be another important weapon in Kiev’s quiver.

However, regarding both the F-16s and the aid package, Moscow believes that they will not make a significant difference on the battlefield and would be shot down by Russian forces.

Where will the money from the package go?

The Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denis Smykhal, in his post on Facebook said that the money will be allocated from the aid package. According to him, about 50 billion dollars will be spent on the defense of Ukraine. This means more weapons for Ukraine, including more anti-aircraft and longer-range missiles.

Another $7.8 billion is intended to support Ukraine’s budget. Also, $1.57 billion is planned in financial aid and $400 million for border protection and demining, according to Schmihal.

The money will also be used to finance the rehabilitation of important infrastructure, he said. The country’s energy facilities are often the target of Russian missile and drone attacks.