For six days the world waited with bated breath for Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented missile and drone strike. After Friday arrived, there was a collective sigh of relief. The attack, targeting an air base near the city of Isfahan, was calibrated to prevent further escalation. The response was muted in both Iran and Israel, who neither confirmed nor denied the attack. Tehran downplayed the entire episode, saying there was no damage and not directly blaming Israel.
Calm seemed to prevail.
Neither side wanted a direct conflict. US President Joe Biden played a critical role, defending Israel after Iran fired more than 300 missiles and drones at the Jewish state, but warned that Washington would not engage in retaliation. He repeatedly urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to show restraint.
For once, Netanyahu seemed to be listening to Israel’s friends, as opposed to the war in Gaza. For now, a full-blown regional conflict has been avoided. But the volatile Middle East is entering a new and dangerous phase, with Israel and Iran changing the rules of the game.
In the months since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that killed 1,200 people, according to Israeli officials, and Israel launched its storming attack on Gaza, hostilities have flared across the region. Israeli and US forces were attacked by Iranian-backed militants. Israel has fought back hard against its adversaries, believing that Iran and its so-called axis of resistance pose an existential threat.
It has launched multiple strikes against Iranian forces in Syria. Its deadly attack on the Iranian consular building in Damascus prompted Tehran’s missile barrage against Israel. Although clearly telegraphed, Iran’s attack was the first direct attack on Israel from its own soil — a highly risky move by a regime that has long sought to maintain hostilities in foreign theaters.
As the two adversaries remain determined to restore their deterrents, the risk of provocations and miscalculations will continue to hang over the region. The persistent threat will be that one will misjudge the other’s response to a hostile act, triggering the next escalation.
The most dangerous front is along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, where Israeli forces and Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy, have been exchanging fire for six months. Israel has made it clear that after October 7, it can no longer live with Hezbollah fighters camped on its borders. A diplomatic solution on this front to the crisis is possible and should be pursued.
The US and its allies must continue to press all sides to show restraint and step up diplomacy to end the conflict. But the risks of miscalculation and escalation will persist as Israel continues its assault on Gaza, which has killed 34,000 people, according to Palestinian officials.
Israel’s allies know this. But Netanyahu insists Israel will launch an attack on Rafah, the southern Gaza city where more than 1 million people have taken refuge, despite warnings it would have catastrophic consequences.
The only realistic effort to stop the war – talks to secure a ceasefire as part of a deal to free Israeli hostages held in the strip – is crumbling. Neither Hamas, exhausted but not defeated, nor Netanyahu is willing to make the necessary concessions to secure a deal.
Israel-Iran hostilities should not be diverted from the devastating crisis in Gaza. The same allies who rallied around Israel when it was attacked should continue to pressure Netanyahu not to launch an attack on Rafah, to allow more aid into the strip, and to end Israel’s attack. Qatar, Egypt and Turkey must step up pressure on Hamas to release the hostages.
The blows between Israelis and Iran were a harbinger of where the combustible road the Middle East is on could lead. The only thing off the ramp is ending the war in Gaza.
