NATO’s unpredictable number 2

Turkey is the country with the second largest army in NATO. She is often criticized for choosing to forge her own path. However, Turkey and NATO need each other.

“Neither in black nor in white, but in gray. That is where the relationship between Turkey and NATO lies.” Political scientist Celine Nasi from the London School of Economics and Political Science describes Turkey’s role in the North Atlantic Alliance with this phrase.

The fact that Turkey seeks to have good relations with Russia and China has led in recent years to question whether Ankara remains loyal to NATO. The many instances in which Turkey has charted its own course – such as the military intervention in northern Syria in 2018 or the blocking of Finland and Sweden from joining the Alliance – have sparked debate in the West about whether Turkey actually belongs in the Alliance or not.

The second largest army

Because of the Russian threat, Turkey – like many other states – had to abandon its neutrality stance after World War II. When Stalin began to lay claim to parts of Turkish territory, Ankara sought the help of NATO, which it joined in 1952.

“Turkey is a country of unique importance for the Alliance,” explains Zaur Gasimov of the University of Mainz. Turkey has the second largest army of the Alliance after the US, it protects the south-eastern flank of Europe while Turkey is home to both of the most important air bases, Incirlik and Iconium.

“The Turkish military forces are one of the few armies in NATO that have direct combat experience. In addition, Turkey is becoming an increasingly powerful partner, developing its own military technology,” Gasimov emphasizes.

An international trend

Ankara is famous for repeatedly deciding to go its own way – so the question arises whether these unilateral actions are compatible with NATO membership?

According to experts interviewed by DW, yes – it is indeed an international trend. “Strategic autonomy is a term that Ankara likes very much. It is a fact that in recent years Turkey has become more and more independent in its foreign policy. And this will continue,” Nasi estimates. “Turkey is not the only country that is making more and more decisions alone. This is the result of the change in international balances and the shift of power from the West to the East. That is why all US allies are behaving in a similar way “, explains the expert.

Gasimov observes an “emancipation” in Turkish foreign policy over the past two decades, and that things have changed a lot compared to the Cold War era. “Turkey can be an active member of NATO and at the same time strengthen its cooperation with Russia. I see no indication that this model could not work.”

Nasi points out that the West benefits from Turkey’s good relations with Russia, even though they are criticized. “You have to communicate with someone you don’t like. And that’s why you need a mediator. The grain agreement, which is important for Europe, for example, could be implemented thanks to Turkey’s contribution.”

Erdogan’s role

The art of communication plays an important role in how other allies treat Turkey. “Turkey has conducted the debate on Sweden and Finland’s entry into NATO in a very problematic way,” criticizes Nasi. “Finally, the impression was created that Turkey is a country that sees every foreign policy issue as an object of negotiation.” And in this Nasi identifies one of the biggest problems of the cooperation with Turkey: “We are dealing with an unpredictable government”.

This issue is in turn related to the concentration of power within Turkey. “Foreign policy decisions used to be made by Erdogan and a handful of his advisers. At the point where we are now, Erdogan is the one who decides everything,” Nasi comments.

Turkey out of NATO?

In recent years, there have been more voices calling for the exclusion of Turkey from NATO, while in Turkey itself there are many who consider that staying in NATO is not the country’s only option. Moreover, Erdogan has seen with a good eye the inclusion of the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization”, an alliance of China and Russia with the aim, among other things, of weakening NATO.

Nasi, however, seems to disagree: “Turkey’s withdrawal from NATO would not benefit either side. And in practice, Turkey is not even withdrawing from NATO. Besides, it fulfills all its obligations to its allies,” emphasizes political scientist. Also, “all Turkey’s defense systems are compatible with NATO. All weapons, military equipment, aircraft. Turkey is fully integrated into NATO. Here we have difficulty changing a mobile phone from an iPhone to an Android. Accordingly, it is not possible to change a whole system at the defense level just like that.”

Edited by: Giorgos Passas

Source: Deutsche Welle