Could what happened on the night of April 13 with American, British and French support for Israel against the Iranian attack with a barrage of drones and missiles, be a model for strengthening air defenses for Ukraine as well?
According to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenky, the answer – albeit dangerously simplistic – is “yes”.
“The whole world witnessed the action of the allies in the sky above Israel and neighboring countries. It proved how truly effective unity in the defense against terrorism can be, when it is based on sufficient political will,” he wrote in https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1779948647364337807?s=46&t=YHPDI7LAqYuccXtmOxomkA.
He didn’t stay there.
“Israel is not a member of NATO, so no action was required, such as the activation of Article 5” on collective defense.
“No one was dragged into the war,” he added. “They simply contributed to the protection of human life.”
And after the announcement that during the Iranian attack, approximately 99% of the missiles and drones were intercepted before they could overwhelm the “Iron Dome” – Israel’s anti-missile shield – the Ukrainian president called on the West to provide the same protection and protection in his country, which is also not a NATO member country.
“When Ukraine says that its allies should not turn a blind eye to Russian missiles and drones, that means action is required – bold action,” Zelensky argued.
The timing is no accident.
As the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues for a third year, Kiev and the West are now at a strategic impasse.
Social media was “flooded” with messages from Ukrainians, including officials, accusing the West of “double standards”.
But the fact that Iran has been under attack by Russia for 26 months with missiles and drones – often Iranian-made Shahed – is clearly a dangerous equation.
Ukrainian President Zelensky at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, July 2023 (REUTERS/Kacper Pempel)
“Other eyes of the hare”…
“https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1779979403377705369?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1779979403377705369%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=about%3Asrcdocdifferent airspace, different threat picture,” commented White House National Security Council spokesman John Kibbie when asked about it.
President Baden, he recalled, “has made it clear from the beginning that the US will not engage in a combat role in the war in Ukraine.”
Much more so against a nuclear power such as Russia, which has set “red lines” and even threatens to use nuclear weapons.
Beyond that, notes the Institute for the Study of War, Ukraine’s geographic proximity to Russia presents a challenge of another scale.
In this case, missiles and drones have short distances to travel to reach their targets, giving only a few minutes to react.
On the contrary, in the case of the attack against Israel – the American think tank points out – “Iranian drones and missiles had to cross more than 1,000 kilometers into Iraqi, Syrian and Jordanian airspace”.
But “the big difference in escalation concerns,” notes American historian and professor of Strategic Studies Phillips O’Brien, “is that Israel is a nuclear power and Ukraine is not.”
“We have provided the Ukrainians with the tools they need to help defend their airspace,” added John Kirby, pending congressional approval of a long-awaited and long-delayed new aid package to Kiev worth more than 60 billion dollars.
The Americans are not the only ones who put “ice” on Zelensky’s new claims, as they recently did with French President Macron’s… Napoleonic declarations about the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine.
“What must certainly be avoided in order to avoid an escalation in terms of a wider European war is the direct involvement of NATO and Russian troops,” warned British Foreign Secretary David Cameron.
Ukrainian President Zelensky inspects military equipment in the Kyiv region (Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via REUTERS)
Here and now…whatever you choose
“Even if you can’t act like you did in Israel,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told the West, “give us what we need and we’ll do the rest.”
The new request of Kiev – which at the beginning of the war demanded from the West the imposition of a no-fly zone over Ukraine – is the immediate strengthening of the Ukrainian air defense.
While he expects F-16 delivery soon, he is requesting additional Patriot arrays here and now.
Just in the past week, the issue was raised at the EU summit, at the extraordinary meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council (convened at the level of defense ministers, at the request of Zelensky), as well as at the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of G7 in Capri, Italy.
Ukrainian officials say they need 26 Patriot systems to cover the entire war-torn country.
At this stage, however, they are asking for at least seven, each costing more than $1 billion.
Germany has already announced the “immediate” shipment of a Patriot array – the third it is sending to Kiev from its reserves – while announcing an initiative to exert pressure aimed at gathering the rest.
“In addition to the Patriot systems, there are others that allies can provide, such as [γαλλικό] SAMP/T and more,” Stoltenberg pointed out.
“Those who do not have available systems have pledged to provide financial support for purchases on behalf of Ukraine,” he added.
He did not give details.
“Help is on the way,” he stressed, saying that new relevant announcements are expected in the coming days.
American-made, the USA has the largest number of Patriot systems.
Arrays, although fewer, also have countries in Europe, including Greece.
According to the statement of the outgoing Dutch Prime Minister – and most likely to succeed Jens Stoltenberg in the position of G.G. of NATO- Mark Rutte, his country, Denmark and the Czech Republic are willing to support the German initiative.
Germany’s Patriot arrays at Vilnius airport, Lithuania, ahead of a NATO summit there in July 2023 (REUTERS/Ints Kalnins/File Photo)
“What you do, you will receive”
In the meantime, the EU has failed to fulfill its commitment to timely deliver sufficient quantities of ammunition to Ukraine.
Ukrainian artillery units are now facing severe ammunition shortages.
On the battle fronts, the exhausted battalions are faced – in addition to the Russians – with the lack of new recruits.
And the controversial new conscription law recently signed by President Zelensky is causing strong reactions within Ukraine.
It does not even provide for a demobilization period.
A growing number in the West are expressing fears that, even with the delivery of new aid, Ukraine may not hold out much longer…
“I’m sure Ukraine will raise the question that since air defense was provided to a non-NATO country during an attack by a hostile adversary, why should it be treated differently?” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told Politico
Invoking the “dire and urgent situation now facing Ukraine”, he called this argument “rather convincing”…
