Despotopoulos in “BIMA”: “An Israel-Iran war does not seem likely”

“We have escaped the danger of the vicious cycle of attacks and counter-attacks” by Iran and Israel, after the “predictable” attack-“strong warning” by the Israelis in Isfahan, last Friday, predicts the internationalist Alexandros Despotopoulos, researcher at the Department of Turkish and Modern Asian Studies at EKPA.

The direct confrontation between the two eternal enemies, after the Israeli “surgical” counterattack, will end, he explains in Vima, as “both the US and other main international stakeholders, such as China and Russia, do not want the development of the regional crisis in a global conflict”.

Why did Israel finally strike back, while the US prevented it? Why did he target Isfahan? Did the fact that the city is home to nuclear facilities play a role?

“There is no doubt that both the United States and other major international stakeholders, such as China and Russia, do not want the regional crisis to develop into a global conflict. It is notable, of course, that American influence seems to be strengthening more in Iran than in Israel, reflecting the significant decline in influence in Israel compared to previous eras. As for Israel’s reaction, in this case it was predictable, with the execution of attacks on military targets inside the territory of Iran, corresponding to the strike on Tehran, which preceded it. Also, the attack on Isfahan is a strong warning from Israel to Iran that “there is a possibility that we can successfully attack your nuclear facilities at any time”.

Will Israel not follow up or is it “warming up” for stronger strikes? Are nuclear facilities near Isfahan safe?

“From Friday’s attack it is easy to conclude that the facilities in Isfahan can be destroyed by Israel if it wants to. The prevailing view that Iran does not have the ability to successfully counter large-scale and powerful ballistic attacks has been confirmed. As far as the Israeli strike is concerned, we could say that the description “match” can describe it”

I mean?

“The Israelis responded to the (April 13) Iranian attack in exactly the same way. The choice of Isfahan, of course, carries a high symbolism and a powerful threat. This is probably why no one wants to take or reveal the responsibility.

Both the Iranians and the Israelis do not want to engage in an endless cycle of counter-attacks, nor to further escalate tensions.”

Iranian officials told the New York Times that the attack “was carried out by small drones, possibly launched from inside Iran,” and that “radar systems did not detect any unidentified aircraft entering Iranian airspace.” What exactly does this mean?

“These messages, broadcast by Iran, aim to convince its “satellites”, but also the public opinion inside the country, that it was not attacked by Israel. This narrative serves Tehran’s claims that it has adequate defenses that prevent Israel from striking military installations and justifies it in not responding to this attack, since it is not attributed to Israel. The reality is that Tehran was alarmed that Israel’s former enemies rallied to support it in fending off the Iranian onslaught.”

Are you referring to Jordan?

“Yes. Who would have imagined a few years ago that Jordan, for example, would intercept Iranian drones in order to prevent them from striking Israel. After the Abraham Accords (which normalized bilateral relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco) it is evident that the vast majority of Middle Eastern states are not willing to participate in a broad military operation against Tel Aviv.” .

There are no plans for immediate retaliation, a senior Iranian official told Reuters. What will Tehran pursue next?

“I think for now we have escaped the danger of the vicious cycle of attacks and counter-attacks between the two countries. Iran will focus on supporting its “satellites” such as Hamas and Hezbollah so that they can continue the “dirty” work against the great enemy.

So, have we avoided the Iran-Israel war and are we not at the beginning of it?

“Exactly. For now, an Israel-Iran war does not seem likely. The US already has an open front in Europe with Russia over Ukraine, and the last thing it would want is a flare-up in the Middle East. The Chinese have been hit by the trade disruption due to the crisis, and the Russians do not want to open another front with the West. Israel is already busy in the Gaza Strip, and Iran realizes that it does not find allies willing to follow it in a possible rupture with Tel Aviv.”

Meanwhile, an Israeli missile strike targeted air defense positions belonging to a pro-Iranian militia in southern Syria on the same night as the strike against Iran. Does this therefore precisely indicate that the Iran-Israel war will henceforth continue by proxy through Syria, Lebanon and Iraq?

“The parallel conflicts between Israel and the “satellites” of Iran continued and will continue as long as the issues of the Middle East are not settled, with the Palestinian issue first. Accordingly, the other conflicts that plague the region continue, such as those in Iraq, Syria, and even Yemen.”

How might the Israeli-Iranian conflict affect Gaza?

“The reluctance of other states to support Iran and the defense support of the West gives Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the opportunity to complete the military operation in the Gaza Strip, advancing to the last shred of ground”