In his open speech in Beirut, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah indicated that his organization is on the side of Hamas, saying: “Hezbollah entered the fray, the day after the surprise attack in southern Israel. The daily exchange of fire with Israeli forces along the Lebanese border may seem modest, but it is very significant, unprecedented since 1948.”
The leader of Hezbollah, in a speech expected to indicate whether his organization will launch an all-out war against Israel, warned that a wider conflict in the Middle East is a realistic possibility, depending on further Israeli actions in Gaza.
Since the beginning of the war, there have been unofficial statements and press reports claiming that an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza would be seen as a red line for Hezbollah. Statements by Iranian officials had also created the impression that an unlimited bloodshed in Gaza would not be tolerated.
Iran’s direct involvement in the outbreak of war in the Middle East had also been announced by Iranian President Ebrahim Raishi. “The crimes of the Zionist regime have crossed red lines, which may compel everyone to take action. If this situation continues and women, children and civilians continue to be killed in Gaza and the West Bank, anything is possible.”, the Iranian president said, speaking to American radio station NPR. In turn, Iran’s Defense Minister Mohammad Reza Astiani underlined: “Our advice to the Americans is to immediately stop the war in Gaza and implement a ceasefire, or they will be hit hard.”
Self-restraint of the organization
However, Iran, despite the warnings, seems to not want its direct involvement, while Hezbollah, although it was expected to participate in the war, opening a second front in the northern part of Israel, for now shows restraint, contenting itself with daily attacks on its positions IDF on the Lebanese border.
According to information from these attacks, many IDF vehicles and tanks were destroyed. Also dozens of radar stations, night vision cameras, infrared sensors, long-range communication towers, telescopes and antennas have been destroyed by the Lebanese Shiite organization in recent weeks.
With its aggressive moves on the border it has pinned down at least 100,000 Israeli soldiers on the northern border so that they cannot operate in Gaza. With an arsenal of 150,000 rockets, several hundred of them guided, meaning they can be aimed anywhere in Israel with guided fire, Hezbollah poses a serious threat to Israel.
Tehran’s hesitations
There is a view that Hezbollah is avoiding becoming fully involved in a conflict that could, by extension, destroy Lebanon. Initiating full-scale hostilities with Israel would severely damage Lebanon’s already fragile economy. The country has been suffering from chronic economic crisis and political impasse has left it without a functioning government. In another view, the decision rests with Iran, which leads the regional “axis of resistance” against Israel.
Iran views Hezbollah as its most important proxy throughout the Middle East. This restraint by Hezbollah perhaps reflects Tehran’s reluctance, despite its threats of wider war against Israel, to risk seeing its most valuable asset damaged and degraded if it were to come into direct confrontation with Israel. . Regardless of the outcome of the conflict, Hezbollah would suffer massive losses.
Serving Tehran’s geopolitical interests in the region requires maintaining Hezbollah’s combat capability at a high level so that it poses a constant threat to Israel. Nasrallah’s forces also maintain the supremacy of the Shiite Muslim community over the two other main religious communities in Lebanon, the Sunni Muslims and the Maronite Christians.
Nevertheless, it is not unlikely that Nasrallah will act on his own initiative and lead his forces into action. Amal Saad, a Hezbollah expert at Cardiff University, said that “Hezbollah is not an agent of Iran, it is an ally of Iran. Hezbollah does not need anyone’s permission to intervene.” In this case, Nasrallah would have to simultaneously defend Hezbollah’s interests inside the country. Faced with two fronts, he would be forced to withdraw forces from Syria, allowing Assad’s opposition to regroup.
The energy weapon
In an extended war scenario, Russia and Iran, along with key players in the Arab world who are to become members of the BRICS 11, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have what it takes to bring down the financial system of the USA and cause a financial crisis in Europe.
Iran is able to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which passes at least 20 percent of the world’s oil (almost 17 million barrels per day) plus 18 percent of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which amounts to at least 3 .5 billion cubic feet per day.
As one old Deep State veteran, now active in Central Europe, points out: “Islamic nations have the economic advantage. They can blow up the international financial system by cutting off the oil. They don’t have to fire a single shot. It took $29 trillion to solve the 2008 crisis, but if that happened, it couldn’t have been solved even with $100 trillion.”.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has already warned that the delivery of oil to Western markets could be delayed because of Israel’s actions in Gaza. Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has already formally called on Islamic countries to impose a complete oil and gas embargo on nations that support Israel. But, the “nuclear” weapon as reported by analysts at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, as well as by independent energy traders in the Persian Gulf, is the collapse of the 618 trillion derivatives structure. dollars.
Concentration of forces
US President Joe Biden sent two groups of aircraft carriers to the eastern Mediterranean as a deterrent, warning Hezbollah and other forces to stay out of the conflict. Moscow’s response was swift: Mig-31Ks patrol neutral airspace over the Black Sea, equipped with supersonic Kinjals that would take just six minutes to reach the Mediterranean.
In the midst of all this neoconservative politics, Russia, China and North Korea – part of the new “axis of evil” against the Americans – they made it known that they will not be mere spectators. The Chinese navy is protecting Iran from a distance, with Premier Li Qiang making an unusual statement about Chinese diplomacy: “China will continue to firmly support Iran in safeguarding its national sovereignty, territorial integrity and national dignity, and will firmly oppose any external forces interfering in Iran’s internal affairs.”.
It should not escape us that China and Iran are linked in a comprehensive strategic partnership. In addition, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin strengthened the Russia-Iran strategic partnership during a meeting with Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber.
The sea deposit of Gaza
One possible reason for the threatened ethnic cleansing in Gaza is the multi-billion dollar natural gas that remains untapped, with the field 36 km from the Gaza coast. Israel is in “secret talks” with the Palestinian Authority about its mining. The Gaza offshore field, first discovered in the 1990s, would send natural gas to Egypt before being sold to Europe.
The Palestinian Authority claims ownership of the field, but Israel claims that only sovereign states have the right to legally manage it. For this reason, the Israeli government conducts “secret talks” with the Palestinian Authority for its extraction.
The Egyptian and American sides support the plan, despite Palestinian skepticism. According to an Israeli assessment, Hamas will not stand idly by, claiming exploitation on behalf of the Palestinians. To this day, Israel maintains that unless Hamas is uprooted from the Gaza Strip, no mining work can be done there.
Mineral engineers first told Yasser Arafat about the possibility of gas deposits in Gaza. He spoke “for God’s gift to the Palestinian people”. Geological surveys indicated that this gas was of good quality and easily accessible. According to data released by the company at the time, the natural gas reserves – at the specific points only – were estimated at 1.4 trillion cubic feet, the value of which has been estimated at over 4 billion dollars.
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