The American president Joe Biden lags behind him Donald Trump in five of the six most important states a year before the 2024 election, according to a new poll by New York Times and his Siena College.
The poll was conducted from October 22 to November 3, among a sample of 3,662 registered voters.
Except age of bidenwhich has many questioning his ability to run for the presidency again, poll results show “deep dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy and many other issues.”
Joe Biden appears to be losing to Donald Trump, the his most likely Republican opponentwith a difference of 3 to 10 percentage points in Arizonathe Georgiathe Michiganthe Nevada and Pennsylvania.
It precedes only the Wisconsin by 2 percentage points, according to opinion polls.
It is noted that these are six electoral battlegrounds where Biden prevailed in 2020. Even more worrying for the presidential “camp” is the fact that most of the respondents state that his policies have harmed them personally.
Loss of African-American voters
The survey also reveals the extent to which the multiracial and age-pluralist base that propelled Biden to the presidency is waning.
The electorate that overwhelmingly supported Biden in 2020 is now trending wildly ambivalent, as two-thirds of the voters they think that the country is moving towards wrong direction.
They still see Biden positively voters under 30 years of agehowever his lead in this age group does not exceed 1 percentage point.
His lead among the Hispanic voters has shrunk to single digits and its lead at urban areas it’s half of Trump’s rural lead.
And while women still prefer bidenmen favor Trump by twice as much, reversing the gender advantage that had significantly favored Democratic candidates in previous years.
Even the African American voters – long with a positive bias towards Democrats and Biden – they support, at a rate of 22%, Trump in the states in question.
It’s about record percentage of African-American support for a Republican candidate in modern times.
If all these are added together, Trump leads by 10 points in Nevada, by 6 in Georgia, by 5 in Arizona, by 5 in Michigan, and by 4 in Pennsylvania. Biden, on the other hand, maintains a 2-point lead in Wisconsin.
A notable sign of the gradual racial electoral “readjustment” being observed is the fact that the more diverse the state the further behind Bidenbased on new poll findings.
Instead, it maintains a lead only in the whitest of the six US states.
“The world is falling apart”
Biden and Trump are both deeply unpopular as voters overwhelmingly say the nation is headed in the wrong direction. However, the recipient of this disappointment is mainly the current American president.
“The world is falling apart under Biden,” said Spencer Weiss, 53, who supported Biden in 2020 but now supports Trump, albeit with some reservations. “I would much rather see someone who I feel can be a positive role model leader for the country. At least I think Trump has his senses,” he said.
Biden still has a year to turn the tables. Economic indicators are up, even though some voters question them.
Trump remains polarizing. And Biden’s well-funded campaign will aim to cover his weaknesses.
The survey shows Biden entering next year with a polling deficit, even though Trump faces criminal charges and will stand trial in 2024.
However, the US president has survived poor polls in the past.
In October 2022, then ahead of the midterm elections, the president’s approval rating was about the same as it is today.
His party nevertheless managed to lose fewer seats than expected in House of Representatives and win a seat in Senatein part by portraying the Republican candidates as extremists.
Today, the degree to which voters are repulsed by Trump’s personality—something that has helped keep him united or for years divided Democratic alliance– appears to have decreased.
Only 46% of voters said Biden is fit to be president, barely higher than the 43% who said the same for Trump.
Trump will be more in the spotlight in 2024 because of his criminal convictions, and his heightened public presence may remind voters why his image turned them off in the first place.