Extremely Disappointing Results for Incumbent – Another, random Democratic candidate would have fared significantly better.
If the election were held today, former President Donald Trump would easily beat President Joe Biden by more than 300 electoral votes, according to a new poll.
The Siena College poll for the New York Times heightens anxiety among Democrats about the 2024 election and undermines will increase anxiety among Democrats about the 2024 election and undermines the idea that Biden is the most electable candidate over of Trump.
Trump leads in 5 of 6 swing states
The poll shows that Trump is ahead of Biden in five of the six “swing” states (that is, those that are ambivalent, are not considered a stronghold of one party or the other and largely determine the final result. In particular, he has the lead in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — states that Biden won overall in 2020.
Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin, but trails by 4 points in Pennsylvania, 5 in Arizona, 6 in Georgia, 5 in Michigan and 10 in Nevada.
Age is a big thorn for Biden
71% of poll participants agree with the statement that Biden is “too big,” including 54% of his supporters. Only 39% feel the same way about Trump, despite the fact that if elected he would be the oldest president ever sworn in and has not publicly shared details about his health.
Voters in swing states say they trust Trump over Biden on the economy by a 22-point margin (59% vs. 37%). Trump and Biden are virtually tied among voters under 30 — a big change from the 2020 presidential election.
An “other” Democrat would do much better
Biden also appears to be a weaker candidate than Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump leads Biden by 5 points and Harris by only 3 points.
On the option “another Democrat” (without specifying who he is) the answers are spectacularly different. This random candidate has an 8-point lead over Trump, outperforming Biden by 13 points.
“We’re going to win 2024 by putting our heads down and getting the job done, not by worrying about a poll,” a Biden campaign official told Axios.com. However, 4 years ago Biden’s staff used the Times/Siena College poll to argue that he is the most electable Democrat over Trump.