The Greek stock market could lose between -10% and -16% of its value…
Let the investors, the few investors left in the Greek stock market, prepare for the 700 to 750 units and for the 10-year Greek bond to rise to 5.5%…
The Greek stock market is uninvestable while the Greek bond market is closed to the public, the markets are closed, it cannot borrow at such extreme interest rates…
The S&P 500 barometer will fall as low as 3,200 points due to continued interest rate hikes by central banks and economic deterioration in Europe and the US.
For the Greek stock market, the deflation will also continue due to the banks that may be… and overvalued at these levels… if certain plans… of the SSM of the banks’ Permanent Supervisory Mechanism come to light…
The Greek stock market 700 to 750 units
The Greek stock market will retreat to 700 to 750 units, the probability of confirming this scenario is very high.
A drop to 700 or 750 points means -16% to -10% from current price levels at 833 points.
Greek banks can be expensive… if SSM insists on government guarantees
Greek bank shares may still be fairly priced even in these adverse times.
With Eurobank 0.94 euros, National Bank 3.31 euros, Alpha bank 0.91 euros and Piraeus 1.18 euros.
However, these valuations may be expensive if the SSM insists on the issue of government guarantees.
Greek banks have received 19 billion government guarantees for senior bonds, the main secured bonds they have issued and hold.
However, these bonds may carry a government guarantee but in real valuation terms they record accounting losses.
The SSM the competent supervisory authority of the banks under the ECB considers that 50% of these bank bonds and despite the government guarantee should be sold to other investors, the Greek banks should reduce the risk.
However, these bonds cannot be sold since the guaranteed bonds also have no buyers in this difficult time…
The real value of Greek banks in stock market terms may be lower if it is not clear who will pay the losses on these bonds… the Greek state has been inconsistent in the past.
Greece’s 10-year 5.50% bond… already the worst performer in the eurozone
The Greek 10-year bond from 4.45% will climb to 5.50% and the German 10-year bond from 1.92% will reach 2.80%.
For the Greek public, access to the markets has been closed… and with interest rates at 5.5%, the Greek state obviously cannot borrow.
The Greek bond market shows the worst performance in the Eurozone despite the fact that only 20% of Greek debt is private and freely negotiable.
Greek bond yields belie the image of technical euphoria presented by the Greek government for the Greek economy…