The speech of the president of Russia was scheduled for 20.00 tonight – His former close adviser reported on Telegram that the speech will finally take place tomorrow – Analysts estimate that the Russian president will announce the holding of local referendums in the province of Donbass, i.e. in Lugansk and Donetsk, but also in Kherson
All eyes are on Moscow, as Vladimir Putin is expected to deliver his first speech since February, when he announced the invasion of Ukraine.
His speech was scheduled for 20:00 tonight, but after a long wait, Sergei Markov, a Russian political scientist and former close adviser to Putin, said on Telegram that the speech will finally take place tomorrow.
However, so far there is no official information.
As reported by international media, the Russian president is expected to announce Russia’s decision to accept any result of the referendums in Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia, proceeding with the annexation of the regions, just as happened with Crimea.
Reactions from France
French President Emmanuel Macron said today that referendums planned in occupied territories of Ukraine to join the Russian Federation will not be recognized by the international community.
Speaking in New York, the French president said proposals to hold referendums in eastern Ukraine posed an additional challenge following Russia’s military invasion of the neighboring country.
“If the idea of a referendum on Donbass was not so tragic, it would be funny,” he told reporters.
White House rejects referendums
The United States has rejected a plan to hold referendums on occupied Ukrainian territories and will never recognize Russian claims to Ukraine, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters.
Sullivan noted that Moscow may want to recruit people from those regions because it has suffered heavy losses on the war fronts. He called the referendums an affront to the principles of national sovereignty and territorial integrity and added that US President Joe Biden, in his speech tomorrow at the United Nations General Assembly, will sharply criticize Russia for the war in Ukraine.
“If this actually happens (including the referendums), the United States will never recognize Russia’s claims to any supposedly annexed parts of Ukraine. We will never recognize these lands as anything other than part of Ukraine. We unequivocally reject Russia’s actions,” he said.
Sullivan cited reports from the region as evidence that Russia may want to recruit people from the occupied territories. He even claimed that Russia is “looking for (military) personnel” to throw into the battle against Ukraine.
On the Moscow stock exchange, shares began to collapse after the announcement of referendums
Russian shares fell to their lowest level in a month today as Moscow reignited fears of martial law under a new bill approved by Russia’s lower house today and plans to hold referendums in Russian-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine accelerated.
According to the Kommersant newspaper, the index of the Moscow Stock Exchange fell more than 10%, below 2,200 points.
Shares fell to their lowest level since mid-August, with the dollar-based RTS index down 5.2 percent at 1,206.5 by 1309 GMT. The ruble-based MOEX index fell 5.1 percent to 2,305.7 points.
Russia’s parliament on Tuesday approved a bill to toughen penalties for a range of crimes, including desertion, damage to military property and disobedience, if committed during military conscription or hostilities.
“Indices are clearly collapsing amid fears around the possibility of conscription and martial law,” Tinkoff Investments analyst Kirill Komarov said, adding that Tuesday’s collapse would likely be the MOEX’s biggest drop since June 30.
“They are fueled by news of upcoming referendums … as well as the president’s order to boost defense production.”
Russian-controlled regions in eastern Ukraine announced plans to hold referendums on joining Russia later this week, while an ally of President Vladimir Putin said the votes would forever change the geopolitical landscape in Moscow’s favor.
“The liquidation was triggered in relation to the geopolitical factor,” BCS Express said in a note. “Additionally, there are media reports of the government planning to introduce an additional tax on oil, natural gas and LNG exporters from 2023.”
Energy companies dominate Russia’s blue-chip index.
The ruble remained stable, maintaining its exchange rate at the 60 ruble mark against the dollar and the euro. Against the dollar, the ruble remained steady at 60.15 rubles per dollar and strengthened against the euro by 0.3% to 59.98 rubles per euro
The Russian currency is set to be boosted by the tax season at the end of the month, when Russia’s exporters typically convert their foreign currency earnings into rubles to make payments to public coffers. Payouts peak on September 26.
“We point out that the trading dynamics, according to our estimates, despite the start of the key week before the payment of taxes by exporters, can be partly linked to the lack of liquidity in foreign exchange for a number of players” said the analyst of Promsvyazbank Yegor Zhilnikov.
Zilnikov said that after the central bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 7.5% last week, the dollar’s base overnight turned negative, “which means that the exchange of dollars for rubles has started to cost banks more than direct loans in rubles.”
The ruble has been the world’s best-performing currency this year, boosted by extraordinary capital controls put in place by Russia’s central bank in an attempt to stem massive liquidation.
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