European elections 2024: The predictions for the seats of the European Parliament

In June, more than 400 million European citizens will have the right to participate in the European electionsthe largest electoral process worldwide after hers of India. These elections will be held simultaneously across the European Union from 6 to 9 June.

European citizens will elect 720 MEPs from the 27 member states with their proportional distribution as follows:

The number of MEPs from 705 has recently increased by 15 to 720. This is the second increase since Great Britain left. Until then, the EP numbered 678 MEPs. This second increase strengthens the representation of certain member states.

The elections are conducted with a simple proportional system while the constant changes in the European Union do not allow easy comparison of the results.

In the European Parliament, MEPs are organized into political groups, which represent various political beliefs and party affiliations.

The most important political groups are the following:

The Greek alliances

The Greek parties participate as follows: New Democracy in PPE, PASOK in S&D, Hellenic Solution in ECR, and the defector Kyrtsos in RE.

The MEPs elected with the KKE and Golden Dawn are among the unregistered, while the recently expelled MEPs Kailis and Georgoulis are also in this category.

How to predict results

1. Data Collection:

• We monitor polls in all member states from EUROPE ELECTS (https://europeelects.eu/).
• We compile the 6 most recent polls for each country.

2. Calculation of seats:

• We apply the respective electoral threshold (e.g. 3% in Greece, 3.8% in the Netherlands).
• We use simple proportionality to calculate the seats won by the parties in the first distribution.
• We distribute the remaining seats using the d HONDT method. .

3. Distribution of MEPs:

• We assign MEPs to political groups based on statements and current practice
• For the alliances, the participating parties are taken into account, the distribution is done proportionally, with small deviations that barely affect the final result.

4. Aggregation of results: We aggregate the results to form the power of political groups.

The objective difficulties that exist for accurate prediction

1. Participation in elections. In many Member States the low turnout makes it difficult to predict the outcome. Slovakia, Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Croatia had participation below 30%. This makes predictions difficult because if abstention is not uniform across parties, the results are completely different from predictions.
2. The platforms. In many states we have the coalition of more than one party which belongs to different political groups. If this platform elects 8 MEPs no one knows in advance how many will join one political group and how many will join the other. In the forecasts that follow we have a proportional distribution.
3. Germany’s forecasts. Germany elects 96 MEPs and has no limit for election. In the previous elections, a party with 0.7% elected an MEP. The polls we have do not give us results for the small parties. In any case, the strength of the major parties in Germany will be less than what we have in the forecasts.
4. In Spain, coalitions of regional parties (Catalans, Basques, etc.) are being formed which have not yet been registered in the polls.

Finally, in order to be able to compare the ups and downs of the parties in relation to the 2019 elections, we simulated the election results for the 720 MEPs so that we can compare similar results.

Forecasts for Greece

Based on opinion polls published up to April 8, the MO of the parties is as follows:

How is MEPs distributed?

The sum of the percentages of the parties that exceeded the 3% threshold is 84%. This number is divided by the number of MEPs which is 21 to determine the electoral measure. The electoral measure is 4.01%.

In the first distribution h

• ND elects 7
• SYRIZA 3
• PASOK 3
• KKE 2
• GREEK SOLUTION 2.

Are the 3 unallocated seats given to the parties with the largest balance?

• 1 seat in SYRIZA
• 1 headquarters in Pleussi Eleftherias
• 1 headquarters in NIKI

In the elections there will be a big battle with the rest. The rest of the Hellenic Solution is very close to the rest of SYRIZA.

The KKE does not belong to any political group. It is not known whether NIKI will join the ID group or remain independent. Her inclusion in the ECR group is considered rather unlikely. Freedom Sailing is not sure if it will join the Left or remain independent.

Taking into account all the misgivings regarding the composition of the political groups, we can say that the next European Parliament will have a strengthened Eurosceptic group that will have 8% more MEPs.

The losers will be the liberals. From third force it will be fourth and there are chances that it will be fifth force. Losses are also observed among ecologists.

To create a majority, the Socialists, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals will be needed.

The Christian Democrats will be the first force and their distance from the Socialists will increase. This means that the presidency of the Commission will probably be held by the EPP and the presidency of the Council by a Socialist. The liberals may share the presidency of the European Parliament with the Christian Democrats. The Commissioners will belong to the Christian Democrats, the Socialists and the Liberals. The Italian commissioner will be interested,

How likely on the Ukrainian question no change is foreseen with the chances of strengthening the pro-Ukrainian wing since a part of the ECR (Prime Minister Belloni’s FdI party) supports it.

Editing of graphs: Konstantinos Holidis

*Antonis Papakostas holds a PhD in Informatics from the Pierre et Marie Curie University of Paris. From 2000 to 2008 he was also responsible for the Eurobarometer.