After months of intense political wrangling, the US Senate has given the go-ahead to a $61 billion aid package for the Ukraine. What remains now is for the president to ratify the said package Joe Bidenwhich is expected within the day.
What kind of arms so could Ukraine receive and to what extent will they strengthen its effort to defend itself against Russian attacks?
Kiev’s most pressing weapons needs are in three categories: air defense systems;them medium and long range missiles, as well as the artillery shells.
So how might these three factors affect the future of war, and how much can American aid change the tide?
Air defense
Countering the Russian threat in the skies is vital to protecting cities and critical infrastructure such as power plants.
Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that this year alone his country was attacked by about 1,200 Russian missiles, more than 1,500 drones and 8,500 guided bombs.
The West has supplied Ukraine with weapons systems ranging from short-range Stinger missiles to the advanced – and very expensive – Patriot system. Zelensky said at least seven more Patriots or equivalents are needed.
Russia’s ballistic and cruise missiles – including S-300 and S-400 – as well as hundreds of Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones are difficult to counter as they are launched in large numbers.
A classic tactic against air defense forces is for the enemy to confront them with numerous targets, engaging their radar systems and depleting their missile reserves.
Medium and long range missiles
But the battles are also important on the ground. Since October, Ukraine has lost about 583 square kilometers of its eastern territory to Russian forces, largely due to a lack of artillery.
HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems) missiles have played an extremely important role in favor of Ukraine, as they launch guided munitions from a mobile platform.
Specifically, they arrive at the right spot, open fire, and then quickly move away before Russian forces can locate and attack them. More HIMARS are expected in Ukraine, and there may be a commitment for more tanks and Bradley infantry vehicles.
What about ATACMS?
It is even worth noting that the long-range version of the American ATACMS (US Army Tactical Missile Systems) missiles is also reportedly ready to be transferred to Ukraine.
Older ATACMS systems have been on Ukrainian soil since late last year, but the newest version could double the range to 300km. This will take the fighting deeper into annexed Crimea, which Russia uses as an important naval base, and beyond.
Artillery shells
At the same time, high importance weapons such as the M777 howitzers require to be constantly “fed” with 155mm artillery shells.
The US has sent 2 million such munitions to Ukraine since February 2022, and it is likely that even more will be included in the recent aid package.
Washington says it has a “very robust logistics network” in place to get the weapons into Ukraine very quickly – even within days, it says.
The supplies are likely to have been moved closer to Ukrainian territory, and once delivered they will officially belong to Ukraine.
However, moving equipment to the front line – and especially artillery – is likely to take many days or even weeks as Russian forces continue their push in the east.
Last week, Russia said it would increase the intensity of attacks on supply centers as well as on Western weapons depots.
F-16 fighter jets
The F-16s preceded the latest US aid package, but are still worth mentioning because they will soon be operational.
Currently, Ukrainian pilots and crews are continuing their training in Western F-16s in Romania. These aircraft are likely to strengthen Ukrainian air defenses as they provide stronger air-to-air and air-to-ground capabilities.
Denmark, the Netherlands and the US are expected to deliver dozens of Vipers to Ukraine within the next few months. The aircraft are not expected to significantly change the facts, but they will be another “ace up the sleeve” of Kiev.
Moscow, for its part, says the F-16s will make no difference on the battlefield and that Russian forces will shoot them down.
Source: BBC
