The strategic choice of the neighboring country to maintain balanced relations with both Russia and China sometimes looks like it is acrobatic and does not remain consistent in the Alliance, while in reality it simply seeks to be a mediating force that will benefit from the relations that concludes.
“Neither in black nor in white, but in grey. That’s where the relationship between Turkey and NATO lies.” Political scientist Celine Nasi from the London School of Economics and Political Science describes Turkey’s role with this phrase.
It is indicative, as the scientist analyzes, that there are not a few times when the country chooses to act as it pleases, without being accountable to the Alliance, such as the military intervention in Northern Syria in 2018 or the prevention of the entry of Finland and Sweden into the Alliance.
The second largest army
“Turkey is a country of unique importance for the Alliance,” explains Zaur Gasimov from the University of Mainz.
It has the second largest army of the Alliance after the USA, it protects the south-eastern wing of Europe while in Turkey there are both the most important air bases, in Incirlik and Iconium.
“The Turkish military forces are one of the few armies in NATO that have direct combat experience. In addition, Turkey is becoming an increasingly powerful partner, developing its own military technology,” Gasimov emphasizes.
Are unilateral actions compatible with NATO membership?
The big question, according to the relevant publication, is whether, ultimately, unilateral actions are compatible with NATO membership. But it is not a policy followed only by the neighboring country.
“The strategy autonomy it is a term that Ankara likes very much. It is a fact that in recent years Turkey has become more and more independent in its foreign policy. And this will continue,” Nasi estimates.
“Turkey is not the only country that takes more and more decisions on its own. This is the result of the change in international balances and the shift of power from the West to the East. That’s why all their allies USA they behave in a similar way” explains the scientist.
For his part, Gasimov speaks of “emancipation” in Turkish foreign policy for two decades, and that things have changed a lot compared to the times of the Cold War.
“Turkey can be an active member of NATO and at the same time strengthen its cooperation with Russia. I see no indication that this model could not work.”
However, it should be noted, as Nasi comments, that the West benefits from Turkey’s good relations with Russia, even though they are criticized. “You have to communicate with someone you don’t like. And that’s why a mediator is needed. The important for Europe agreement on grains, for example, could be implemented thanks to Turkey’s contribution.”
Erdogan’s stance on Sweden-Finland’s accession requests
“Turkey conducted the debate about Sweden and Finland’s entry into NATO in a very problematic way,” Naci criticizes.
“In the end, the impression was created that Turkey is a country that sees every foreign policy issue as an object of negotiation.” And in this Nasi identifies one of the biggest problems of the cooperation with Turkey: “We are dealing with an unpredictable government”.
This issue is in turn related to the concentration of power within Turkey. “Foreign policy decisions were made by Erdogan and a handful of his advisers. At the point where we are now, Erdoğan is the one who decides on everything,” Nasi comments.
Turkey out of NATO?
Therefore, with the strategy of autonomy that it maintains, as the publication emphasizes, in recent years the voices calling for the exclusion of Turkey from NATO have increased, while in Turkey itself there are many who consider that remaining in NATO is not the unique choice of the country.
Moreover, Erdogan has seen with a good eye the inclusion in the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization” an alliance of China and Russia with the aim, among other things, of weakening NATO.
Nasi, however, reportedly disagrees:
“Turkey’s exit from NATO would not benefit either side. And in practice, Turkey is not even withdrawing from NATO. After all, it fulfills all its obligations to its allies”, emphasizes the political scientist.
He concludes that “all of Turkey’s defense systems are compatible with NATO. All weapons, war material, aircraft. Turkey is fully integrated into NATO. Here we find it difficult to change mobile from iPhone to Android. Accordingly, it is not possible to change an entire system at the defense level just like that.”
