Aliyev Threatens France, Greece, India Arming Armenia – Our Meddling

A special… speech by the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, was published yesterday by the TASS agency, that his country cannot see “Idle France, Greece and India to arm Armenia against her, doing so openly and ostentatiously, trying to prove something to us. We will not sit idly by,” he told a conference at ADA University. In fact, he explained that the above has been “transferred to the government of Armenia, and to the parties that help it. It is a serious threat and we must take equally serious measures.”

But what equipment and movements does Aliyev refer to? THE France initially has indeed entered into several agreements to equip Armenia – the latter after its big defeat in 2020 in the war with Azerbaijan, as well as last year’s new defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh is looking to rearm. These include purchase of atomic weapons from the French company PGM, night vision binoculars, three GM-200 early warning radars, while there are discussions for the supply of short-range Mistral anti-aircraft missiles. In February this year, we had the visit of the French Minister of Defense, Sebastien Lecornou, to Yerevan, where a defense cooperation agreement was signed. Several dozen French light armored Bastion wheeled vehicles have also been transferred to Armenia.

India, in turn, has won contracts worth some $400 million to sell PINAKA self-propelled multiple rocket launchers as well as various types of ammunition and discusses even more.

Armenia is in talks with India to buy Barak-8 anti-aircraft missiles

These two major countries have approached Armenia for a variety of reasons, the main one being itself “withdrawal” of Armenia from the Russian umbrella, where he would supposedly protect her from Azerbaijan, so there is an opportunity for her to cooperate. Specifically, Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a regional security agreement between Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Tajikistan, except that when he received the Azeri attacks, he did not get any help, even though he invoked the relevant predictions.

Not only that, but Russia emerged in 2020, after the defeat of Armenia by the Azeris, as a “peacekeeping force” in the region, deploying by general consent its troops in Nagorno-Karabakh and on the line of confrontation, where again, in last year’s new attack by Azeris in Karabakh and its almost total occupation, they did not react. Thus, Armenia feels that Russia “sold” it (despite their religious affiliation and historical relationship…), so last year it announced the suspension of its participation in the CSTO. Arriving in fact, the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, to declare in 2023 that it was “a strategic mistake of his country to rely on Russia as a guarantor of its security”.

Pashinyan: Armenia can no longer rely on Russia for its defense needs

The above fault is of course considerably more complicated, as well in the Caucasus region there is a rearrangement of geopolitical balances, where e.g. Georgia, once hostile to Russia, has found itself close to Moscow again, Azerbaijan feels very strong with the support of Turkey and Israel, so it decided to “clear up” its confrontation with Armenia, but also to sharpen the one it has with Iran. While Kazakhstan has cooled to Moscow, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Especially for Paris and its own approach to Armenia, the large Armenian community within France, which has significant economic and political influence, while India sees Armenia as a small country, plays a role. useful, however, as a “wedge” in the looming “Islamic arc” that is forming in this region, with Turkey at one end and Pakistan at the other.

Greek-Armenian cooperation

In all of the above, the question is one: Why does Aliyev include Greece among those “arming Armenia”? And does it threaten us too? The close relationship between Athens and Yerevan is of course well known, while in 2022 we had a visit by N. Hardalias (then Deputy Minister of Defense) to Armenia with discussions “to deepen the deepening of bilateral relations in the fields of defense equipment, the defense industry and the expansion of military cooperation programs between the Armed Forces of the two countries” as mentioned. While in the same year there was also a visit by N. Dendias, as Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Also, Greece, Armenia and Cyprus have created a tripartite cooperation scheme, in matters of defense, mainly with executive trainings and information exchanges. The program, especially between Greece and Armenia, in December 2023 was renewed for another year and includes joint action in 26 activities, mainly in Greece. Also, another field of cooperation is the study of Armenians at the Evelpidon School (more than 100 had passed through there over decades).

Recently, in March 2024, Mr. Dendias, as Minister of National Defense, repeated his visit to Armenia, stating the following:

“During our talks today we agreed on practical ways to strengthen our bilateral defense relations after the signing, as you were again kind enough to mention, of the bilateral military technical cooperation agreement. And then, this year we signed the defense cooperation programs, which bring the forces of the two countries much closer in the field of education, which has also given significant results in the past.

Many officers of the Armenian Armed Forces have been trained in Greek Schools, and the aim is to welcome others. In addition, we can form a successful partnership in the field of Defense innovation. I was lucky, as I had the opportunity to inform you about the new legislation, for the creation of a new Center for Defense Research and Innovation in Greece, and it will be our pleasure to see Armenian companies and Armenian interests participating in this Our ecosystem.

We have also established a tripartite defense cooperation scheme between our countries and Cyprus, as well as other tripartite or even quadripartite partnerships with France and India. Important countries, important powers, who are common friends with Armenia and Greece”.

Even last year we had the announcement from the side of Armenia that there is a discussion with Greece about “weapons co-production”, but something very vague as a “bilateral defense cooperation draft”. While, finally, this year in February, we had Pashinian’s visit to Athens where he met with Prime Minister K. Mitsotakis, with the aim of further strengthening relations and wider cooperation.

Military cooperation between Greece-Cyprus-Armenia and for 2024

So although all of the above can be interpreted as a rather typical form of defense cooperation between historically friendly countries, without special outbursts, it seems that it was enough as a “set” but mainly as an “intention” to re-ignite Azeri anger.

With Aliyev having expressed several times very caustic about our country while he remains in our memory – and deserves to be mentioned again – the episode he did in 2020, at the expense of our ambassador, Nikolaos Piperigos. Who met with him in September of that year to hand over his credentials, i.e. a completely formal/ceremonial meeting, where Aliyev, in violation of all diplomatic decency, sat opposite him and publicly chanted about the Greek super stop of Armenia (see the related video below). Stating that “I can’t find anything positive about our relationship” ehe emphasized that for Azerbaijan “Turkey is a sister country”.

The two-sided hypocrisy

So one would expect with all of the above, Aliyev’s threats, our own “ranking” almost or even completely among the enemies of Azerbaijan, the occasional critical statements, the Greek moves, low range of course, which in no case can be considered that they are “arming the Armenians”, that a serious crisis has been caused in our relations with the Azeris. And if we had at least a tough Greek response at the diplomatic level.

But let’s not be naive. A few months ago, in November 2023, the Minister of Environment and Energy Theodoros Skylakakis stated the following: “Greece is in favor of international law and respect for agreements. Our energy relations with Azerbaijan have never been affected by political issues until now and I hope the same will be true in the future”. This statement, of course, referred to the fact that our country buys plenty of natural gas from the Azeris, with a multi-year supply agreement already in place (we get up to 25% of the volume we need from there), while we remain a key transit hub for it to Europe via the pipeline TAP. So the “big talks” are good, but the reality is better, even if it has a lot of hypocrisy…