What does the victory of the VMRO-DPMNE candidate mean in the 1st round of the presidential elections

Fifteen days of political uncertainty await her North Macedoniaafter the first round of the presidential elections, in which the opposition candidate Gordana Silianovska-Davkova came first and by a large margin from her opponent and the current president of the country, Stevo Pendarovski, who has the support of the ruling Social Democratic Party.

By Thodoris G. Kanellos

And this is because the second round of the presidential elections will take place at the same time as the national elections, on May 8. And the first round of the presidential election was the first tangible sign of a growing disenchantment with the ruling party, which has promised to advance the country’s European Union membership, increase economic growth and crack down on corruption.

“For the parliamentary vote, there will be an even bigger difference. I think this is good for the future because we pensioners are not happy with this government,” said Azim Zovens, 74, a pensioner in the capital Skopje.

Analysts estimate that voters with the 40.08% they gave to Gordana Silianovska-Davkova showed the depth of their dissatisfaction with the ruling Social Democrats. On the other hand, the Social Democrat president Pendarovsky, analysts said, got only 19.93%, as announced by the State Electoral Commission after counting almost all the ballots.

The largely ceremonial presidential vote was widely seen as a litmus test for the parliamentary elections. After certain percentages, it is clear that the winner will be the one who secures the support of the two Albanian parties, in the second round.

It is worth noting that Gordana Silianovska-Davkova, a lawyer and university professor in the polls looked like she would get around 20%. The Social Democrats recognized the setback. “We made mistakes and people said what they had to say about it,” party leader Dimitar Kovacevsky told supporters. The question is whether they can recover the lost ground in 15 days.

Pendarovski, 61, called Wednesday’s result a defeat for pro-European forces and said he would continue campaigning for the second round.

North Macedonia’s bid for EU membership was met with optimism in 2005. However, almost two decades later, little progress has been made, in part due to Bulgaria’s backlash. North Macedonia’s relations with Greece entered a path of normalization, after the Prespa agreement. But Bulgaria vetoed it in 2020 over history and language issues, which many North Macedonians say challenge their national identity.

Analysts doubted that VMRO-DPMNE would make a difference, given that it has historically taken a harder line with Bulgaria than the current government. The assessment was not wrong given that EU membership is a burning desire in North Macedonia.

“Talks with Bulgaria have essentially stopped… VMRO-DPMNE will recognize this status quo and maybe introduce a kind of moratorium (on the talks) until they find a way to resume them,” analyst Goran Georgiev said, referring to the possibility of a defeat by the Social Democrats in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

In 2001, the Western NATO alliance pulled North Macedonia from the brink of civil war during an Albanian uprising, and the country promised faster membership to both the EU and NATO. North Macedonia joined NATO in 2020.

The Prespa deal is not easy to overturn. If Greece wanted its overthrow, it would have taken the necessary steps. If a new, nationalist, government in Skopje attempts to take the path that the Mitsotakis government did not choose to follow, there is no doubt that it will find itself on a difficult and uphill road leading to isolation.