The forecasts for wages, three years and unemployment in Greece (tables)


“Tight” are her predictions European Commission for the increases of salaries but also its de-escalation unemployment in Greece in the next two years.

H 2nd Post-Program Monitoring Reportwas drawn up by the EU’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, in collaboration with technocrats from ECB and his European Stability Mechanism and was based on information and developments recorded up to April 28, 2023.

Estimates of wage increases

As the Report points out, and despite the positive performance of the Greek economy, Greece does not follow the increase in wages to workers that other European countries provide.
Specifically, the Report notes:

“THE competitiveness of the cost (of the Greek economy) is predicted to improve. The unique labor cost projected to increase by slower pace than in the Eurozone on average, as the increase of salaries in GREECE lags behind against him average of the Eurozone, despite the recent increase in the floor salary in April 2023. In this regard, the range of futures wage adjustments will be crucial to avoid adverse effects on employment and competitiveness, but also on the impact on working poverty. Unit labor costs are expected to increase by 1.9% and 1.5% in 2023 and 2024.”

Selected economic indicators – Greece/ Source European Commission

The Report admits, however, that “after the price increase, the pressure at state expenses continues to accumulate and can cause higher from the planned wage increases in the public sector and social spending.”
After all, as the Report adds, the planned reform of the payroll at public sector will have an estimated fiscal impact of 0.2% of GDP in 2024.

The three years are “on ice”.

The Commission Report puts “in the ice” the hopes of the workers for salary increases through the “unfreezing” of them three years.

As the relevant law of the Memoranda provides, the three years in Greece will be unfrozen when unemployment falls below 10%. Despite the deceleration recorded in recent months (unemployment at 10.8% in January 2023, eurostat data), the Commission estimates that unemployment in Greece will remain over 11% in 2024 as well.

Summary of main macroeconomic variables (%) / Source European Commission

“THE dynamic of employment is expected to slow down in the midst of the difficult domestic and international environment” states the Report. “The employment rate reached historical record of 67.6% in the third quarter of 2022 (age group 20-64) in the context of post-pandemic dynamics, in particular the recovery of tourism, however the projected slowdown in economic activity expected to affect job creation. The industry of domestic services, which accounted for 61% of total employment in 2022, was initially more protected from the energy price shock due to its relatively lower energy intensity, but is set to be affected by inflationary pressures and the projected slowdown in consumption. Overall, the employment is expected to increase against 0.8% in 2023 and 0.7% in 2024. THE unemployment it stood at 12.5% ​​in 2022 and is projected to average 12.2% in 2023 and 11.8% in 2024.”

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unemployment Commission wages Greece three years

The article is in Greek


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