How dangerous is Turkey?

How dangerous is Turkey?
How dangerous is Turkey?

For many months now, essentially since January 2020, Turkey has engaged in a tactic of continuous challenges to Greece. Sometimes verbal (mainly) and sometimes practical.

This tactic has been followed by all the Turkish governments of the last 10-11 years, but there has never been such a high frequency and such high intensity in the incidents. Also, for about 2.5 years now, the insults, provocations and bullying seem to follow a specific plan, to try to create a specific context and situation.

To put it simply, everything shows that from the Turkish side, there is a clear intention to create a specific “narrative” that will lead to an episode of some form and extent with Greece and a state of emergency.

Which, if it happens, gives Recep Tayyip Erdoğan all the excuses he needs to postpone the elections, gain superpowers and essentially remain President for as long as he wishes or his health allows!

It will not be the first time, moreover, that a Turkish leader will use the “external enemy” (either “Western” or “Eastern”) to solve his political problem abroad. The narrative of the external enemy is for Turkey exactly what it is for Greece, the equivalent of “entangled interests”! It’s just that there are much greater scopes for creating impressions and acquiring superpowers, that is, it is much easier to apply.

The question is whether and to what extent Erdogan will proceed to implement such a “solution” to his problems, for the first time after assuming power.

Logic says he won’t. Experience has shown that the current president of the neighbor does not proceed to conflicts unless he is absolutely certain that he will emerge victorious from them, reaping visible, tangible and big profits.

Which is not the case in this case. Both the strengthening of the country’s defense capabilities (the 6 received Rafales dramatically change the balance of power in favor of Greece, as much as some in the West of the Aegean do not like this), as well as the extremely improved relations with major military powers that are manifesting for the first time so clearly in favor of Greece, dictate that the already quite weakened Turkish armed forces do not have much hope of emerging victorious in a conflict between the two countries. Whether it lasts 1-2 days, or a little longer. A Greek-Turkish conflict cannot last longer, mainly for technical but also for geopolitical reasons.

The problem is that R.T. Erdoğan has been behaving far from rationally lately. A typical example of the absurdity of his actions and decisions, his attitude towards the interest rate hikes of the lira, which has literally crushed the Turkish economy (official inflation at 75%, real >150%)!

Unfortunately it is obvious that it is impossible to realistically assess their true intentions, and therefore act accordingly. The only option for Greece at the given moment is, on the one hand, to prepare for all eventualities in combination with the continuation of the foreign policy up to now and on the other hand, the continuous supervision and close monitoring of all the movements of Turkey so that, whatever reaction is required, it is lightning fast , decisive and fully effective.

Of course, how the second can be implemented when the National Intelligence Service is in the corner and at the center of the news, has long been questionable. A question that can only be answered by those who kept the relevant case in their drawer for more than 10 months, and pulled it out just 9 months before the Turkish elections and as soon as the polls showed that their course so far was nothing more than a well-inflated balloon that popped…

Petros Lazos
[email protected]

The article is in Greek

Tags: dangerous Turkey

NEXT Celik for Greece and the DPRK