The September floods in Thessaly and the prolonged summer in almost the entire country affected, as Insider.gr wrote in a previous report, the demand for diesel and heating oil as a result of which they record negative signs in September compared to the corresponding period last year.
The picture is expected to be different in October, at least as far as diesel traffic is concerned, as demand is recovering, while the demand for heating oil appears to have moved sluggishly during the first month of its availability for this season. As for gasoline, the demand in September registered a drop, although much smaller than that of diesel fuel, while the picture is expected to be better in October, where the municipal and regional elections required more movements on the part of consumers.
Slow demand for heating oil despite the fear of price increases
The fear of higher fuel prices due to geopolitical developments motivated consumers to some extent to purchase some quantities of heating oil but the prolonged summer and the decrease in disposable income were the factors that ultimately influenced the purchase decision preventing consumers from new orders for the time being .
According to market estimates, the demand for heating oil in October recorded a drop of 40% compared to last year, while at the nine-month level the drop reaches 30%. At the moment, the average nationwide price of heating oil stands at 1,406 euros per liter from 1,428 euros 10 days ago, while the further de-escalation in wholesale prices suggests a further price reduction in the coming days.
Mixed picture for motor fuels – Diesel is recovering
Despite the negative signs recorded in September, motor fuels are expected to register positive signs in October. According to market data, in September, gasoline consumption fell by 1.3% and diesel consumption by 13.5%, mainly due to the suspension of agricultural work due to the flood in Thessaly.
At the nine-month level, petrol registers an increase of 4.6% and motor diesel by 0.6% while the best month seems to have been October. According to preliminary market data, demand for gasoline rose by 5% and diesel by 17%. Of course, it should not be overlooked that last October was a month with high prices in terms of diesel traffic (in October 2022 compared to October 2021, diesel traffic recorded a drop of 11%).
Oil: International prices are falling but by how much?
Oil prices fell on Wednesday to the lowest level in the last three monthsn, after industry data showed a sharp rise in U.S. crude supplies, while mixed economic data from China raised concerns about global crude demand.
The EIA now expects total U.S. oil consumption to fall by 300,000 barrels per day this year, reversing its previous forecast of a 100,000 bpd increase.
On the other hand, the figures in China, the world’s largest oil consumer, are also encouraging doubts about the demand outlook.
Crude oil imports by the world’s second-largest economy showed strong growth in October, but overall exports of goods and services contracted at a faster-than-expected pace, heightening fears of weaker global energy demand.
However, these figures do not allow for big dips in international prices for now as Brent remains pressured by a modest recovery in the US dollar from recent lows, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.