Manos Hatzidakis: Return to Fall (Weekender by Beta Sec)

The arrival of September was accompanied by large movements in the bond markets, with the main feature being the opening of yields. Markets are preparing to welcome the ECB’s decisions next Thursday, September 8, to raise key intervention rates next week with consensus estimates moving in the range of 50 to 75 basis points. However, attention will remain on interest rates until September 21 when the FED will announce the new level of US interest rates and give an indication of its intentions for the period remaining until the end of the year. It is the first time since 1990 that bond markets have lost more than 20% from their highs, entering what is typically a long-term downtrend and marking the worst year in their history. The increase in bond yields led to an increase in risk premium for the shares which did not remain unmoved following a downward trend. At the same time, the high level of electricity prices adds another risk to the nervousness of the markets as Europe heads into winter with uncertain natural gas supplies.

Returning to domestic fundamentals, the course of announcements this semester has exceeded all expectations this year. In the “only” 24 corporate announcements of the six-month period, net profits approach 4.7 billion euros, which can only be compared to the record year of 2007, when listed companies had recorded profits of 10 billion euros in a 12-month period. Certainly the quality of the profits needs to be pointed out in some cases in terms of their repeatability, however, even after the necessary adjustments and corrections, the corporate profitability is completely supportive of the valuations. Mid-sized listed companies take turns next week, giving a better impression of the trends that prevailed in the second quarter and especially of the prospects for the second half of this fiscal year. Be that as it may, the cushion of corporate profitability in 2022 may smooth out pressures from the outside while the rumored reduction in the corporate tax rate will have an additional positive suspension in a new cycle of pressures.

What the General Index had been building up laboriously since the beginning of July fell easily in the last sessions of August. The market turned bearish, briefly cutting the 200-day moving average. We had a split on both the 50- and 30-day time series, while the market’s rapid plunge made up for 7% losses from the start of the decline before the General Index partially recovered in Friday’s session. The ongoing formation refers to what happened in June this year when the decline found a first level of support towards 815 units. The bearish scenario is currently dominant as the oscillators on their daily charts leave open the possibility of further downside until they enter undervalued price zones. Shrinking turnover and reducing daily swings can be seen as a good indication of some temporary lull in selling intensity before the start of an upward correction.

Rich calendar of corporate actions and planned announcements in the coming week. Apart from the ECB meeting, the announcement on the GDP of the second quarter by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (Wednesday 7/9 12:00) stands out. As for the rest: Without the annual dividend (0.28 euros) EYDAP will be traded on Monday, while without the capital return of 12 cents per share, the GEKTERNA share will be traded on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the share of Ble Kedros will be traded without the annual dividend (0.0824 euros), on Friday the share of Ktima Lazaridis will be traded without the annual dividend (0.03 euros) and Ideal holdings without the return of capital (0. 07 euros). In other corporate actions, the completion of the distribution of documentary securities in cash to the beneficial shareholders of Attica Bank on Thursday, September 8, is highlighted.

On the front of corporate announcements of half-year results, the publications of Fourlis and PPC (Tuesday after the close) of Quest and Autohellas (Wednesday after the close) stand out this week, the teleconference of OPAP results (Thursday 16:00), and the semester of Sarantis and Andromeda (Thursday 8/9).

Finally, it is pointed out that the markets in America will remain closed on Monday.

This presentation does not constitute an investment proposal or an invitation to buy / sell shares

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