Political instability and the economy
A new poll, the fourth in a week, was presented yesterday on Mega. And this survey shows that the government is bearing the brunt of the wiretapping scandal and is well ahead of SYRIZA.
In the government camp, according to information from the column, they are optimistic about the results, despite the drop in percentages. However, what they see is that SYRIZA cannot in any case get a head start, or even come close to the percentages of the ND. And PASOK does not seem to have much momentum to “hit” the SW-SYRIZA duopoly.
This is the good news for the ruling party. Because the bad things are the decline of the percentages and of course the fact that it is far from a self-sufficiency.
Read also: Poll: How much the government was hurt by wiretapping, what is the difference between ND and SYRIZA
That is why the next 9 months are characterized by political upheavals that will also have an impact on the economy. The so-called “political risk” makes analysts think about the course of the Greek economy.
Besides, the first elements of this uncertainty have already begun to be seen, with the rise of bond interest rates, but also with the take-off of CDS, the so-called risk premiums.
The return of the fear of possible negative developments as a result of a prolonged political instability in the country, is something that economic factors are discussing.
Also Read – The Complete GPO Poll: Popularity, Vote Intention, Interceptions
In fact, there are some who are pushing for a change in the electoral law so that the first party is closer to self-reliance so that precious time is not lost, after the first Sunday of the simple proportionality.
However, as the column is informed, if Maximos decides to change the electoral law, it will do so much later, not now and not while hot fronts such as wiretapping, the TIF basket, the energy crisis and the coming winter are ongoing .
Struggle for energy countermeasures
One after another, European countries are taking measures for accuracy in energy, as they cannot wait for the Commission bureaucrats to “wake up”.
Spain dropped the VAT on gas from 21% to 5%, in order to reduce the prices for household and business electricity.
Belgium has decided to extend the reduced 6% VAT on gas and electricity, introduce special prices for poor households, tax corporate profits and naturally turn off lights and air conditioners in public buildings and streets.
More or less all countries will act in this way, while the leaks about the plan being studied by the Commission are of interest. After so many months it seems to be deciding on a ceiling but only for electricity generators that do not run on natural gas. That is, a price cap for electricity generation technologies that have lower operating costs, such as lignite, RES, etc. In this way they want to separate the commercial returns from the current price of electricity.
What will Greece do? Maybe we will find out in a few days at TIF. It can be a mix of tax cuts and precision checks. After all, everything depends on the endurance of the budget.
Winter in Greece is late, but at some point decisions will have to be made. After all, it is not only how we will be warm, but also how we will be able to buy products necessary for our living.
Cyprus and “Greek yogurt”
It is known (unfortunately) that Europeans and even more the rest of the world’s consumers have been exposed daily for many years to a yogurt that has been arbitrarily baptized as “Greek Yogurt”, which is produced in any country in the world, from any raw material and with any recipe/method.
Who would have expected that such phenomena would occur in Cyprus too!
And we explain ourselves. In its annual report for 2021, the Office of Economic and Commercial Affairs of Nicosia states that it detected in Cyprus the inscription of the phrase “with the Greek recipe” on many yogurt packages of a domestic dairy company.
The Office of EIF Nicosia is monitoring the matter and, as it emphasizes, “expects correction of the abusive names, which, as it notes, are detrimental to the corresponding Greek products.”
And all this happens when “the Cypriot market does not present particular access problems for Greek and other European products”, as it is typically reported.
The delays for the Viva Wallet deal…
The deal to buy Viva Wallet of Haris Karonis from the American JP Morgan caused great excitement when it was announced. As the Microeconomist reveals in Vima on Sunday, this was done both because of the size, as it reached 1.5 billion euros, and because of the involvement of the historic American bank, which chose a Greek digital banking vehicle for its expansion in the European Buy. Since then, however, neither voice nor hearing.
We asked the authorities, that is, the supervisory authorities, and we received the following answer: “The acquisition is progressing, but relatively slowly, mainly due to the difficulty of the American bank managers to adapt to the requirements of European banking legislation.”
…legislation and controls…
Apparently, the SSM supervisor, whose jurisdiction covers European banks and by extension those based in Athens, demanded from the American bank to declare the persons responsible in Athens and together with all accompanying data and documents, tax and other, that confirm the their incomes and assets, the origin of the money and of course the guarantees of banking experience and competence they have.
Information from the Microeconomics reports that the officials of the American bank considered the control exhaustively formal, far from the flexibilities of the corresponding American one and went so far as to annoy the Bank of Greece. However, they were informed that these are the requirements of the European law and its full implementation is required. That’s how the delay came about. However, the Bank of Greece assures that the deal is progressing, albeit relatively slowly.
…and the future for Karonis
The truth is, however, that the demonic and persistent Haris Karonis feels somewhat uncomfortable at the meetings of the Hellenic Banks Association, where he participates as the only expression, at least at the moment, of digital banking in Greece. The representatives of the “systemic” banks probably treated him as a “foreigner”, and he certainly did not miss the opportunity to claim facilities, declaring that he represented the fast-coming digital banking future and the others the cumbersome present. However, now that the “systemic” banks are rushing, one after the other, to create corresponding digital schemes, we assume that the environment of the Union of Greek Banks will become friendlier for him…
Record amounts for buying holiday homes
Impressive are the figures published by the Greece Sotheby’s International Realty company for the luxury properties that have been sold to date in Greece. The data shows that there is strong investor interest in expensive homes in popular destinations, resulting in record deals for the amount being closed.
The protagonist of the sales of expensive holiday homes is, of course, Mykonos, where the absolute record for the sale value of an individual residence in Greece was set, with the amount of the transaction exceeding 23 million euros.
The above transaction is approximately four times the value of the average transactions of the island and comes to seal the title that Mykonos rightfully holds as the flagship of Greek luxury real estate.
Other regions of the country are following a similar path, such as Syros, Lefkada and Paxos where not only was there very high interest, but also really high transactions were recorded, with the records succeeding one another.
On the island of Syros, the highest value transaction in the history of the island was recorded this year with the sale of a property for 3.7 million euros. This particular transaction value is approximately 3 times higher than the average level of deals of this scale in previous years.
In Lefkada, the historical record for the sale value of luxury property was broken in 2022 not just once but twice with transactions of 4.1 and 5.4 million euros, in one of which even the largest amount per square meter was recorded with the value of is set at 16,700 euros per sq.m.
In Lefkada, luxury real estate transactions are few and far between, with most hovering around the €1.5 million mark, and the particular records set in 2022 represent almost 3 times the values.
Paxos has great momentum where in just 4 years the values of the top transactions have multiplied. More specifically, from May 2018 until July 2021, through transactions by Greece Sotheby’s International Realty, the record of the region was broken 6 times in a row, rising from 1.6 million euros in 2018, to 1.9 and 2.5 million euros in 2019 and to 3.5 million, 5 million and 5.2 million euros in 2021.
The first places in demand for the 8th month of 2022 are Corfu and Mykonos, followed by the Athenian Riviera, Paros and Rhodes. Tinos, the center of Athens, Crete, Kea and Paxos complete the top ten.
At the level of countries of origin, Great Britain remained in first place in 2022, with the USA and France occupying the 2nd and 3rd places in requests, however showing excellent dynamics, increased by 76% and 74% respectively compared to the same period of 2021 .
What is the population of the country?
An interesting analysis of the population census was made by Byron Kotzamanis and Vassilis Pappas of Dirap. It highlights the section that says:
The enumerated permanent residents of our country in 2011 were 10.817 million and the statistical error (escape) based on the ELSTAT coverage survey was estimated at a national level at 2.83% (higher among foreigners – 6.6% – and lower among citizens – 2 .5%-).
Taking this error into account, ELSTAT re-estimated the permanent population of our country in the middle of 2011 (ie 1.5 months after the 2011 census) to 11.105 million. Given that: a) the Natural Balance (births – deaths) in the period 30/6/2011 to the end of October 2021 (recent census) is negative by 310 thousand and b) the migration balance estimated by ELSTAT (incomes – exits) for the same period is also negative by 175 thousand), we estimate that the permanent population of our country at the end of October 2021 is close to 10.620 million [11,105 εκατομ. -310 χιλ. (γεννήσεις-θάνατοι) -170 χιλ. (είσοδοι-έξοδοι)].
This estimate of ours differs little from that of ELSTAT which was also adopted by EUROSTAT in its recent publication (10.604 million on 1/1/2022). Based on these data, the population decrease between 30/6/2011 and 30/10/2021 is estimated at 485 thousand.
The 2021 census was expected to give – like the previous one – a smaller resident population than estimated, and it also has an error (non-census of part of the population2). As it happened, as based on the provisional results the censused permanent residents of our country amount to 10.432 million against the estimated 10.620 million. The provisional data thus show a decrease of 385 thousand between the two censuses, smaller than the estimated (-485 thousand .) and an indirectly estimated negative immigration balance of just 75 thousand (compared to 175 thousand based on ELSTAT’s latest estimates for the same period.
We learn that banks are starting to worry about bad loans. Not as much as other times, if memory serves, but their reflection intensifies.
As well as the central banker, Yiannis Stournaras, after all…
What bank managements fear is that there will be a massive wave of defaults in the difficult winter ahead.
Not only from households, who may prefer to pay their living expenses and delay certain installments.
But also from small and medium-sized businesses that are struggling, with “equal boat, equal waters” balance sheets.
No alarm has been raised, it is true, but bankers are watching the loan picture carefully and will have clearer data from October onwards.