Despite large soft wheat harvests reported in Russia, there are many question marks over the country’s export dynamics to European markets, while a curb on Ukraine’s exports is now being discounted, a few months after the conclusion of the relevant agreement to release its stocks.
Soft wheat contracts in France broke the resistance of €340 a tonne, a level they failed to test after a correction last June and now at €347, the indicator shows it has broken the rally upwards. In the case of France, prices for durum wheat are also dragged down, returning to 445 euros a ton from 430 last week. And in Foggia, despite the fact that the Canadian harvest is very close, the meeting last Wednesday, September 21, stopped the downward streak, with prices remaining unchanged. In particular, the quality wheat with a specific weight of 78 kg/hl, vitreous 70% and protein 12%, the merchant warehouse price is now traded at 487.5-482.5 euros per ton. For the second quality with a specific weight of 76 kg/hl, vitreous 60% and protein 11.5% the merchant warehouse price ranges from 477.5-470.5 euros per ton. It is not yet clear whether the durum wheat market has hit the lows of the range, but with the uncertainty brought back by Russia’s belligerent rhetoric, an upward revision cannot be ruled out, despite new quantities entering the market from Canada. Of course, even in such a case, the room for growth in durum wheat seems limited, since the market in question is not directly affected by the grain flows of the Black Sea. That is, in any case, the last word is the activity developed by Canada, which shows less promise than it had previously suggested.
Corn is also on the rise
The price of corn on the European market also shows gains. Now France is close to 340 euros per ton in 4 of the 5 active contracts (November 2022, March 2023, June 2023 and August 2023), a price that does not include transportation, which remains expensive. As an example, it is mentioned that the transport of a truck from Thessaloniki to Megara increases the cost per ton by approximately 40 euros. For this reason, importing from Bulgaria, especially in the southernmost centers of Greece, is considered unprofitable for several market players. A new, perhaps final, price pressure is not excluded once the cuts start in Sofia, Bulgaria, where, however, yields again appear reduced and demand at pan-European level high.